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BGonline.org Forums
Bear-Off cube decision
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Bear-Off cube decision (Justin Nowell)
Date: Sunday, 29 April 2018, at 6:51 a.m.
In tackling certain problems I use a common sense approach combined with a little bit of knowledge. I hate getting too wrapped up in the numbers. I'm pretty comfortable with the effective pip count (EPC) and would use it.
First, let's do the easy side, White. White has a nice position nine checkers remaining. His epc should be the pip count (44) plus seven as *nice* positions waste about 7 pips. So White's epc is 51.
Blue may seem tough at first but this is where common sense comes in. All I want to estimate is how many rolls does it take blue to get off? With the epc, a roll position's epc is 7(N)+1 where N equals the number of rolls to get all your checkers off. Having 9 checkers remaining the minimum would be 5 rolls however with such nasty wastage we're sure to miss more than just once. Are we going to miss more than 3x on average? The answer, yes but not always. This means my epc is going to be somewhere in between 7(6)+1 = 43 and 7(7)+1 = 50. If I took the dead middle it's obv. 46.5 but if I felt that we were more or less likely to miss that much I'd shade it further in one direction or the other.
While this isn't the most precise method as there is some experience based guessing involved I assure you it serves me well enough. Again, when I get to the point in a match where I'm facing a pure racing cube I don't need my answer to be anywhere near exact. What I need is an answer that tells me if it's close or not close. The decision itself if close will come down to the score and who I'm playing.
Stick
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