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BGonline.org Forums
Cube action ATS?
Posted By: Karol Szczerek In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)
Date: Monday, 30 April 2018, at 5:24 p.m.
White will autorecube, so her TP is about 7%, which is the MWC she'd have at -8/-1C had she passed.
I'd consider recubing within max 1% of her TP at this score.
I'd use EPC to estimate GWCs here.
Blue wastes about 7 pips with his "nice" position for an EPC of 83.
Estimating White is not hard too, but requires some experience. I'd compare her distribution to a "high triangle" position of 012345, which I know wastes 7.5 pips.
Firstly, her lowest checker is on the ace instead of the deuce, but if that's a single checker it shouldn't matter, so no adjustment there. Secondly, she has a third checker on the 3pt, which is usually about +.5 pip wastage. Thirdly, she is a bit front-loaded on the high points. It's too optimstic to assume she will get perfect rolls to bear-in all 3 outfielders to the 6pt or one to the 5pt and 2 to the 6pt or so to even this out. I think it's more likely they will end up on 4-5-6pts, one each, on average (just imagine what happens when she rolls a big double during bear-in). So I'd imagine her distribution as something like 013443 on average. Compared to the "high triangle" position of 012345, she has 2 less checkers on the 6pt, which has to be penalized. I'd give her additional +.5 pip wastage for this.
So I end up at 8.5 pips wastage for an EPC of 104.5 for White.
This is a long (over 70 EPCs) pips vs pips race, so 10% EPC deficit puts off-roll trailer at about 24% GWC. 25% deficit penalize her by additional 0.1 x leader's EPC + 7 GWC, so about 15.3%. 24 - 15.3 = 8.7% GWC at 103.75 EPC. White is about 0.7 pip worse than that.
Let's look at the value of a (effective) pip in the range of being 10% behind and 25% behind. The distance is 20.75 - 8.3 = about 12.5 in pips and 15.3% in GWC, so a pip is worth something between 1.2% and 1.25% GWC. When I go further behind in a race than the 25% mark, the value of a pip diminishes further. I'd assume about 1% value of the next pip. White is about 0.7 pip behind the 25%-behind mark, so about 0.7% worse. 8.7% - 0.7% = 8% GWC.
OK, that double decision is right on the line, but probably still slightly too weak to double, as Blue has a bit more than 7 pips wastage (nicest position wastes 7.07 pips if I recall correctly, so he's probably at 7.2 or even 7.3 pips wastage instead of 7 I assumed on the begginning).
Certainly a sound take.
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