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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 1 May 2018, at 2:01 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

There has been some solid in depth analysis of what to do with this problem but again, I prefer living in the real world rather than number crunching. A little bit of knowledge and a lot of common sense.

The take point we do need to know. As others have said, around 7%.

We're way up. How far up does it matter? Only in certain spots. If a weaker player is playing a stronger player it doesn't matter, double. If two mediocre players are playing each other it doesn't matter, double. Why in that scenario? Because your average every day player is going to have no clue how to estimate their winning chances that precisely in this position. They'll likely stare at the position for a minute, sigh quietly to themselves, flip a mental coin, and make that decision. If we're a stronger player playing a weaker player we don't cube because it would be a nightmare for this to be taken even if it was theoretically a pass. Playing a player 3 PR worse than you or greater you're essentially holding a dead cube.

One lame short cut I use in these lopsided race situations is that if you're up at least a roll you're 90% or better.

Stick

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