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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 1 May 2018, at 10:07 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

I was Blue in this position against XGR+ the other day. My OTB calc for the doubling window was from ~90% - 93%, a pretty small window. Against an even opponent, I would have waited until I thought I was 92% or better to recube, as Karol noted. I've found that the raw pip count is about all you need for cube actions in pip vs. pip races. I seldom worry about EPC's in such a race. So I plugged 76-96 into Kleinman and that gives about 90.2% chances. I figured I was a bit better than that here because of White's long outfield crossovers. XG needs 29 pips (just 1 less than the maximum for 5 crossovers) or about 3.5 rolls to get into it's 6-point. How much to penalize for that? I figured a pip or two. Kleinman for 76-98 put me right at 92% so it had to be a cube against a better player.

The RO shows recubing to be wrong by .04. Still a recube against a better opponent, as Stick said. Probably a cube between two average players as well since most won't be able to pinpoint their winning chances that precisely. You only need a 25% chance of an incorrect pass to make recubing correct.

		White is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 96 13 point match pip: 76 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBDGb------a----bccc-a-:1:1:1:00:10:5:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	91.82% (G:0.66% B:0.00%)	91.96% (G:4.67% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	8.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	8.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.840	+1.299
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.921	±0.001 (+0.920..+0.923)
Redouble/Take:	+0.883 (-0.038)	±0.002 (+0.882..+0.885)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.079)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action ATS?
  John O'Hagan -- Monday, 30 April 2018, at 3:12 p.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    ah_clem -- Monday, 30 April 2018, at 5:19 p.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 30 April 2018, at 5:24 p.m.
    • Impressive analysis!
      John O'Hagan -- Monday, 30 April 2018, at 11:18 p.m.
      • Thanks, John. *NM*
        Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 1 May 2018, at 8:24 a.m.
    • Cube action ATS?
      Tenland -- Tuesday, 1 May 2018, at 5:57 p.m.
      • Cube action ATS?
        Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 1 May 2018, at 6:08 p.m.
        • Cube action ATS?
          Tenland -- Tuesday, 1 May 2018, at 9:04 p.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    Joseph Pregler -- Tuesday, 1 May 2018, at 2:22 a.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    Stick -- Tuesday, 1 May 2018, at 2:01 p.m.
  • OTB & RO
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 1 May 2018, at 10:07 p.m.