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Short race GWC? *spoiler*

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 5 May 2018, at 10:34 a.m.

In Response To: Short race GWC? (John O'Hagan)

Correct database EPC for Blue is 29.5.
I've underestimated him, too.

I think when we count that D2 misses 30% next roll with any non-double 2, we have to count it two times, not once. D2 -> X2 misses just like X2 -> D2 does.
The same applies to the D1.
So if you count a miss as .2 EPC, we would get to .2 x .3 + .2 x .5 = .16 EPC penalty counting once. Counting twice: .32 EPC penalty.
Now, I didn't even consider that we can miss with rolling a non-double ace three times, too. That's 10 rolls x .2 EPC x 10/36 x 10/36 or 10 x .2 x ~.077 = ~.15 EPC. That brings us to the database EPC of ~29.5.

Messages In This Thread

• Short race GWC?
  Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 4 May 2018, at 4:23 p.m.
  • Short race GWC?
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 4 May 2018, at 5:57 p.m.
    • Short race GWC? *spoiler*
      Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 5 May 2018, at 10:34 a.m.
  • Short race GWC?
    Stick -- Friday, 4 May 2018, at 6:16 p.m.
    • Short race GWC? *spoiler*
      Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 5 May 2018, at 10:05 a.m.
  • Short race GWC?
    neilkaz -- Friday, 4 May 2018, at 10:03 p.m.
  • Short race GWC?
    Hans Marius Eikseth -- Sunday, 6 May 2018, at 10:05 a.m.
  • Short race GWC? - Bot info & comments
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 7 May 2018, at 7:53 p.m.