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Why it's correct to leave the extra shots

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 16 May 2018, at 9:33 p.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)

On the 2 extra hits, your side wins 31.3% vs. 86.24% if White had entered without hitting. That's a loss of 109.88%.

Now for the gains:

16/36 dance after either play. The extra checker off gives you 94.18% chances vs. 91.58% with the safer play. So you gain 41.6% here.

9/36 enter without hitting after either play. Here you win 88.9% vs. 86.24% for a total gain of 23.94%.

11/36 hit after either play. Taking the extra checker off wins 31.3% vs. 24.97% after the safer play. Total gain here is 69.63%.

The gains total 135.17% which is 25.29% more than the 109.88% loss.

All the above figures are per XG++ eval by the way.

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