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D5 at DMP

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 17 May 2018, at 11:42 p.m.

In Response To: D5 at DMP (neilkaz)

Odd/even considerations don't matter very much in this specific type of situation.

If I remove a cheker from the board, the "safe" play becomes a .04 error instead of a .016 error. So, it must matter a little, even if it's not decisive.

Interestingly, if I give white a decent board, it's a statistical tie. (see below). I would have expected this to tilt it towards the safe play, but it doesn't.

Variant 1

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 49 1 point match pip: 47 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCB--------------d-d--:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 55

1.	Rollout1	6/1 5/Off(3)	eq: +0.457
	Player: Opponent: 72.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 27.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.456...+0.459) - [100.0%] Duration: 1.0 second
2.	Rollout1	6/1(2) 5/Off(2)	eq: +0.416 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 70.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 29.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.415...+0.418) - [0.0%] Duration: 1.2 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant 2

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 53 1 point match pip: 50 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBCBCB-------------bbbb--:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 55

1.	Rollout1	6/1 5/Off(3)	eq: +0.326
	Player: Opponent: 66.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 33.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.324...+0.328) - [100.0%] Duration: 1.7 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/1(2) 5/Off(2)	eq: +0.322 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 66.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 33.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.320...+0.323) - [0.0%] Duration: 1.6 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• D5 at DMP
  John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 15 May 2018, at 6:46 p.m.
  • D5 at DMP
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 15 May 2018, at 10:27 p.m.
  • D5 at DMP
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 16 May 2018, at 7:55 p.m.
    • D5 at DMP
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 17 May 2018, at 2:49 p.m.
      • D5 at DMP
        ah_clem -- Thursday, 17 May 2018, at 11:42 p.m.
        • D5 at DMP
          neilkaz -- Friday, 18 May 2018, at 2:53 p.m.
  • OTB & RO
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 16 May 2018, at 8:19 p.m.
    • Why it's correct to leave the extra shots
      John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 16 May 2018, at 9:33 p.m.
      • One small correction
        John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 16 May 2018, at 10:05 p.m.
      • Why it's correct to leave the extra shots
        Bob Koca -- Friday, 18 May 2018, at 12:36 a.m.
        • Why it's correct to leave the extra shots
          John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 19 May 2018, at 12:53 p.m.