QF sort of gives this one away. I know I would have followed the "when in doubt, make the 5-point" guideline OTB. XG however made the other play. This is apparently one of those cases where doing something good on both sides of the board is the best choice. The 9 is useful and now is a good time to come up to the 21. White's 7 and 8-points are both stripped so he won't break one of them to hit loose and most of the PoH numbers leave you with about 8-10 ways to hit back on the 17 or 18-point. The 5K RO isn't stat sig but I'm not going to waste any more comp time on this position.
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 156 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-a--E-CA--dD---bbcb--AA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/9 | eq: -0.487 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.81% (G:9.53% B:0.40%)
61.19% (G:18.89% B:0.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.495...-0.480) - [93.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/5 8/5 | eq: -0.496 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.64% (G:10.15% B:0.36%)
62.36% (G:17.89% B:0.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.503...-0.488) - [6.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10