BGonline.org Forums

Prime vs prime cube - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 28 May 2018, at 9:13 p.m.

In Response To: Prime vs prime cube (Karol Szczerek)

I wouldn't even consider taking this.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 79 Unlimited Game pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBBBB----------bccdbBA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	73,61% (G:10,94% B:0,33%)	74,79% (G:11,79% B:0,39%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26,39% (G:9,70% B:1,02%)	25,21% (G:9,38% B:1,01%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,478	+1,027
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,758 (-0,148)	±0,010 (+0,748..+0,769)
Double/Take:	+0,907	±0,015 (+0,892..+0,922)
Double/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,093)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 5 minutes 48 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Improving White's timing makes it only a borderline double - see the variant below (White's 4pt spare moved to her 6pt).

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 81 Unlimited Game pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBBBB----------ccbdbBA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69,92% (G:10,88% B:0,39%)	70,73% (G:11,56% B:0,43%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30,08% (G:11,69% B:1,24%)	29,27% (G:11,40% B:1,20%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,382	+0,817
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,660 (-0,022)	±0,009 (+0,651..+0,669)
Double/Take:	+0,682	±0,012 (+0,670..+0,694)
Double/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,318)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		99,8%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 13 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Prime vs prime cube
  Karol Szczerek -- Sunday, 27 May 2018, at 7:21 p.m.
  • Prime vs prime cube
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 27 May 2018, at 10:17 p.m.
    • Prime vs prime cube
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 27 May 2018, at 11:36 p.m.
      • Prime vs prime cube
        ah_clem -- Wednesday, 30 May 2018, at 12:50 p.m.
  • Prime vs prime cube
    Justin Nowell -- Monday, 28 May 2018, at 5:03 a.m.
  • Prime vs prime cube
    hominid -- Monday, 28 May 2018, at 10:06 a.m.
  • Prime vs prime cube
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 28 May 2018, at 10:47 a.m.
  • Prime vs prime cube - ROLLOUT
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 28 May 2018, at 9:13 p.m.