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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 2 June 2018, at 3:24 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or not? (John O'Hagan)

I hit OTB but the roof caved in. White closed out 4 checkers and won a BG. The hit however is correct. Looking at the RO results, notice the following:

After no hit, we lose a net of -2.3% g's (and virtually no bg's). After hit, we lose a net of -21% g's. After hit, we lose a net of -5% bg's.

How many extra wins will we need to make up for all these extra g and bg losses? If we never redouble, the answer is 1/2 of the extra net g losses and all of the extra bg losses. That comes to ~14.5%. Since we can redouble, we can afford to hit even if our net extra wins are slightly less than this.

The RO shows hitting gives Blue 16.5% extra wins, so it's clearly the best play.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 97
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AABCC-BA----a--ccccbB---:1:1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout122/14* eq: -0.472
Player:
Opponent:		35.09% (G:8.74% B:0.23%)
64.91% (G:35.12% B:5.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.480...-0.464) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout19/7 8/2eq: -0.593 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:		18.76% (G:0.25% B:0.01%)
81.24% (G:2.56% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.597...-0.588) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout19/3 6/4eq: -0.593 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:		18.64% (G:0.30% B:0.01%)
81.36% (G:2.63% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.597...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 03 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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