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43 at DMP

Posted By: Mike Clapsadle
Date: Wednesday, 18 July 2018, at 4:09 a.m.

In Response To: 43 at DMP (John O'Hagan)

Not sure if there's a quiz factor here, but I'm just bringing them in. With average rolls, it's going to take white 4 rolls before they're bearing off. Blue is likely to have 7 or 8 checkers off by then. White fails to escape and gets pointed on over 18% of the time. Also, no numbers play bad for blue. If you hit loose, when white dances, I've counted 5 numbers that don't play well.

On the flip side, blue's not scared much of dancing on whites homeboard. And if hit white would be the one that needs to be more cautious of getting hit while trying to break contact because of blues 5 point board. But, I'd still rather make the safer play, this race isn't really that close with all of whites wastage.

My initial thought when looking at this, was that it was going to be a Bagai Play, but then noticed there are about 18 numbers that don't play well when white dances opposed to the 5 when you just hit lose. Plus if you're hit twice with 52, that probably only increases the chances of hitting one of whites checkers on the way back.

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