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43 at DMP

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Wednesday, 18 July 2018, at 2:14 p.m.

In Response To: 43 at DMP (John O'Hagan)

Blue is at about 66 + 9.5 = 75.5 EPC before the roll. White is at 15 x 3.5 + 18 + 23 - 4 = 89.5. So the race seems to evaluate at about 10-12% GWC for White. A roll of 7 pips for Blue maybe pushes it to the ~12% mark.

I don't think the contact favors either side in a meaningful way (on one hand Blue can't play all his rolls boldly, damaging his race equity, but on the other hand, White has some blocked doubles and she might still get closed out sometimes), so I'd just assume Blue wins roughly the same as in a non contact race, so about 88% after the non-hitting play of 8/5 8/4.

After the hit:
- if White hits back I'd guess Blue wins slightly over 60% of time on average - let's use 62% (strong hits like 2-6, 2-5 and 2-1 give maybe about 55% on average and the other five 2s maybe 70%+);
- if White dances I'd guess we win roughly 95% of time

So the hit seems to risk about 26% in 11/36 cases to gain 7% in 25/36 cases for (-286% + 175%)/36 or ~3% loss in GWC.

Not hitting seems to be clearly better.

Messages In This Thread

• 43 at DMP
  John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 18 July 2018, at 1:28 a.m.
  • 43 at DMP
    Mike Clapsadle -- Wednesday, 18 July 2018, at 4:09 a.m.
  • 43 at DMP
    Joseph Pregler -- Wednesday, 18 July 2018, at 11:01 a.m.
  • 43 at DMP
    GL Harvie -- Wednesday, 18 July 2018, at 12:25 p.m.
  • 43 at DMP
    Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 18 July 2018, at 2:14 p.m.
  • 43 at DMP
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 18 July 2018, at 3:04 p.m.
  • 43 at DMP
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 4:23 p.m.
  • OTB & RO
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 4:55 p.m.
    • OTB & RO -- Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 11:40 p.m.