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What are the odds--Monte Carlo bets
Posted By: Bill Riles In Response To: What are the odds--Monte Carlo bets (Phil Simborg)
Date: Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 4:45 p.m.
I'm not a bettor in these regards, but I'll offer some opinions.
I will assume there will be 200 playing in the Championship (187 last year).
Also, one should note since there is no seeding, etc. it is very likely that some of the players from these groups can meet and, effectively, eliminate each other in the early rounds (Victor and Akiko played in the first round last year). It is double elimination, but a very, very long road to the championship through the second chance bracket -- though Granstedt did it two years ago after losing in the first round.
1. Likely as many as 15 former champions will be in attendance, including Granstedt who has won three times. I'll make a wild guess assumption that half of the field has effectively little or no chance. So, maybe in the 8:1 to 10:1 range.
2. Perhaps as many as 20 of the current Giants will be in attendance. I think those Giants, as a whole, are a stronger group than the former champions group -- though there is a fair amount of overlap. So, with the same assumption that half the field has little or no chance, I'll guess maybe in the 6:1 to 8:1 range.
3. Will be a fair number of players from the USA (maybe as many as 20) including some very strong players -- I think, in no particular order, Russell, Ashkenazi, Sax, O'Hagan, O'Laughlin, Petko, Frigo, Litzenberger, and quite a few others (I probably inadvertently left off a specific great name or two; sorry, no offense). I would go in the 10:1 neighborhood.
4. Comparatively, I think the Japanese contingent, though very strong, will be smaller than the USA contingent. Thus, I would go in the 15:1 neighborhood.
How do you think I did?
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