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Double from the bar with two up. - RO & VAR

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Friday, 20 July 2018, at 9:32 p.m.

In Response To: Double from the bar with two up. (Karol Szczerek)

Maybe the original position isn't too interesting after all. Maybe I shouldn't post that late in night. Even though we have 2 on the bar it's rather easy to see that we are way too strong for White here. She can never take with that post-55 structure as it's very weak vs any prime. And here, our prime is a killer.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b-BBBBB---cB----ccA-b-bB:0:0:1:D:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76,45% (G:21,57% B:0,92%)	76,65% (G:22,33% B:1,06%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23,55% (G:9,08% B:0,22%)	23,35% (G:8,98% B:0,19%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,661	+1,350
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,910 (-0,090)	±0,011 (+0,898..+0,921)
Double/Take:	+1,187 (+0,187)	±0,018 (+1,170..+1,205)
Double/Pass:	+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 12 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

But if we had the blots on 22&23pt and White hit with a 44 last roll instead, suddenly she has a reasonable take.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 136 Unlimited Game pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b-BBBBB---cB---bacA-bb-B:0:0:1:D:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72,27% (G:20,33% B:0,96%)	72,54% (G:20,76% B:1,04%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27,73% (G:11,65% B:0,58%)	27,46% (G:11,54% B:0,55%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,536	+1,096
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,776 (-0,143)	±0,010 (+0,766..+0,786)
Double/Take:	+0,919	±0,014 (+0,905..+0,933)
Double/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,081)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 27 minutes 48 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Double from the bar with two up.
  Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 7:20 p.m.
  • Double from the bar with two up.
    Grant Hoffman -- Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 9:26 p.m.
  • Double from the bar with two up.
    Benf -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 1:34 p.m.
    • Double from the bar with two up.
      Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 8:45 p.m.
      • Double from the bar with two up.
        BenF -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 10:20 p.m.
  • Double from the bar with two up.
    neilkaz -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 2:17 p.m.
  • Double from the bar with two up.
    TarHeelFan -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 6:25 p.m.
  • Double from the bar with two up. - RO & VAR
    Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 9:32 p.m.
    • Double from bar with two up -- Contrasting Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 28 July 2018, at 9:42 p.m.