[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Blitz vs Prime - ROLLOUT & VARIANT

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 18 August 2018, at 10:25 p.m.

In Response To: Blitz vs Prime (Karol Szczerek)

A 5-prime is a 5-prime. Even if it's such a high one with front-loaded spares and no board. White has very low priming prospects, which makes this one a take. What I was amazed about is how big a take it is.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 111
Unlimited Game
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----ECBBB-b----bacbb--bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64,57% (G:28,45% B:0,19%) 65,01% (G:28,17% B:0,20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35,43% (G:4,75% B:0,22%) 34,99% (G:4,89% B:0,22%)
Cubeless Equities +0,528 +1,065
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,709 (-0,062)±0,022 (+0,688..+0,731)
Double/Take:+0,771±0,026 (+0,745..+0,797)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,229)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 8 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Below you can see a variant where I shifted White's ace pt to her 3pt. She can prime as well as blitz now, which is enough to make it a pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 115
Unlimited Game
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----ECBBB-b----bacbbb--A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69,86% (G:29,49% B:0,43%) 70,89% (G:28,69% B:0,45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30,14% (G:4,15% B:0,20%) 29,11% (G:4,22% B:0,22%)
Cubeless Equities +0,653 +1,330
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,881 (-0,119)±0,012 (+0,869..+0,893)
Double/Take:+1,090 (+0,090)±0,021 (+1,069..+1,111)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 8 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.