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Blitz vs Prime - No double VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 19 August 2018, at 4:12 a.m.

In Response To: Blitz vs Prime - ROLLOUT & VARIANT (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 111
Unlimited Game
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----ECBBB-b----bacbb--bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Original position


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64,57% (G:28,45% B:0,19%) 65,01% (G:28,17% B:0,20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35,43% (G:4,75% B:0,22%) 34,99% (G:4,89% B:0,22%)
Cubeless Equities +0,528 +1,065
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,709 (-0,062)±0,022 (+0,688..+0,731)
Double/Take:+0,771±0,026 (+0,745..+0,797)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,229)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 8 minutes 56 seconds

Above is Karol's rollout of his original position. White should double.

Below is a variant with one Blue spare moved. White should NOT double.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 111
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----DCBCB-b----bacbb--bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Variant (One of Blue's 6pt spares is moved to his 9pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.80% (G:28.77% B:0.16%) 59.70% (G:28.77% B:0.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.20% (G:5.58% B:0.22%) 40.30% (G:5.73% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities +0.427 +0.847
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.536±0.018 (+0.518..+0.554)
Double/Take:+0.498 (-0.038)±0.016 (+0.482..+0.514)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.464)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.0%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76552653
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 24 seconds

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