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Bearing in: can't understand correct play

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Friday, 24 August 2018, at 10:44 p.m.

In Response To: Bearing in: can't understand correct play (leobueno)

Blue's racing chances alone after the safe play seems to be about 55% (White seems to be about 5.5 EPC behind, on-roll). With contact that's maybe something between 60-65% as 1/4 of White's numbers are blocked and Blue can either attack or just easily bear off without exposing next turn.

If you hit instead and White's roll decided the game (any trey she wins, dance she looses), Blue would have 70% already.

Blue can't always win after the dance though (I'd give him about 90%), but after White return hits, she's far from gin either (I'd put Blue at 20% on average being on roll). That trade-off also favors Blue.

I'd call it 65 vs 75% GWC decision and hit.

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