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Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 27 August 2018, at 9:02 p.m.

In Response To: Sometimes BG is mostly a math game. (neilkaz)

I'd guess White can never redouble AtS, so Blue offers a dead cube. He could do that at 50% GWC for money and AtS - probably even lower. He is easily a leader in the position, so an easy cube.

White's DCTP is 9.5/34 which is about 28%. Does she have it?

I'd forget about EPC for such a short race and do the rough counting manually. Blue wins on 4 doubles immediately. Then, if White doesn't roll a double, depending on Blue's last roll (forget about [22] for a sec) he bears off with as low as 14 rolls (after a [21] last roll) or up to 36 rolls (after some high non-doubles). OTB I'd just give him about 25 rolls on average (middle of that range) and penalize for a [22] (which leaves only 6 winning rolls) by something between 0.5 - 1.0 rolls. I'd be tempted to just use a nice number of 24 rolls OTB. Ergo I get 4 + 5/6 x 24 = 24 rolls, so about 67% chance.

I'd expect to be wrong by up to ± 5% GWC with such rough calculation, but that seems to be an easy take nevertheless.

Messages In This Thread

• Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
  neilkaz -- Monday, 27 August 2018, at 6:34 p.m.
  • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
    Joseph Pregler -- Monday, 27 August 2018, at 7:34 p.m.
    • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
      Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 5:49 a.m.
      • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
        Joseph Pregler -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 2:01 p.m.
      • 3 Checker EPC
        Rico -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 11:50 p.m.
        • 3 Checker EPC
          Rico -- Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 12:02 a.m.
    • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 2:50 p.m.
  • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 27 August 2018, at 9:02 p.m.
    • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 1:26 a.m.
      • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
        Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 5:39 a.m.
  • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 7:14 a.m.
  • OTB and analysis
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 2:20 p.m.
    • OTB and analysis
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 4:13 p.m.
    • OTB and analysis
      Frank Talbot -- Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 5:33 a.m.
      • OTB and analysis
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 6:09 p.m.
      • OTB and analysis
        Frank Talbot -- Thursday, 30 August 2018, at 2:43 a.m.
  • Talbot method to evaluate 3 checker bearoff
    Bill Calton -- Sunday, 16 September 2018, at 12:25 a.m.
    • Mistake in the last example
      Karol Szczerek -- Sunday, 16 September 2018, at 10:39 a.m.