BGonline.org Forums

OTB and analysis

Posted By: Frank Talbot
Date: Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 5:33 a.m.

In Response To: OTB and analysis (neilkaz)

White wins 32 times 6 = 192 times out of 1296 or ~15% immediately. Danny Kleinman's Wonderful World of backgammon page 62 lists 3 checker variations in the bearoff. 3 men for blue totaling 12 pips, gets you off in 2 rolls 25% (3/4/5) of the time. Extrapolate to 11 pips with perfect distro is 20%. Since this is not perfect distro add couple percent. So you get say 21 or 22 %. Call it 21.5%. It must be discounted the 15% already counted, so thats minus 3. So 15% + 21.5% - 3% = 33.5%. Easy take. If you just memorize 4 key points on that chart you can get a lot of these correct easily over the board.

Messages In This Thread

• Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
  neilkaz -- Monday, 27 August 2018, at 6:34 p.m.
  • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
    Joseph Pregler -- Monday, 27 August 2018, at 7:34 p.m.
    • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
      Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 5:49 a.m.
      • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
        Joseph Pregler -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 2:01 p.m.
      • 3 Checker EPC
        Rico -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 11:50 p.m.
        • 3 Checker EPC
          Rico -- Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 12:02 a.m.
    • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 2:50 p.m.
  • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 27 August 2018, at 9:02 p.m.
    • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 1:26 a.m.
      • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
        Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 5:39 a.m.
  • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 7:14 a.m.
  • OTB and analysis
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 2:20 p.m.
    • OTB and analysis
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 4:13 p.m.
    • OTB and analysis
      Frank Talbot -- Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 5:33 a.m.
      • OTB and analysis
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 6:09 p.m.
      • OTB and analysis
        Frank Talbot -- Thursday, 30 August 2018, at 2:43 a.m.
  • Talbot method to evaluate 3 checker bearoff
    Bill Calton -- Sunday, 16 September 2018, at 12:25 a.m.
    • Mistake in the last example
      Karol Szczerek -- Sunday, 16 September 2018, at 10:39 a.m.