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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 30 January 2007, at 4:36 p.m.

In Response To: Stick/Hickey - which 5 pt.? (Stick)

Two men back to one man back, the bigggggg stack White has on his 6 pt. waiting to roll off any ace apparently points to the defensive anchor. It neutralizes the game if I anchor up and basically nothing can go wrong for me for a long time to come. If, however, I make the offensive five point I can still be put out of the game rather quickly. OTB I went for offense figuring if one of them was bound to be a blunder it'd be anchoring up, errors I can typically live with, blunders I can't. My play wins more games, wins more gammons, but loses so many gammons that it completely swings the play.

Money Game
143
150
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/20 0.061
0.3% 10.4% 50.2% 49.8% 5.8% 0.2%
Live cube rollout: 0.052
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.051 ±0.009, - live cube: 0.052 ±0.017. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1620 games (equiv. 76908 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 8/5 6/5 0.029 (-0.031)
0.6% 14.9% 50.4% 49.6% 12.8% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: 0.027
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.029 ±0.010, - live cube: 0.027 ±0.020. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1620 games (equiv. 61038 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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