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Desperate double ATS?

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Monday, 3 September 2018, at 1:42 a.m.

In Response To: Desperate double ATS? (John O'Hagan)

Blue has 8 hitters. If Blue hits and White comes in with a 1, Blue does not lose the market. If Blue hits and White comes in with a 4, most of the time Blue does not lose his market. Let us say Blue loses the market 11% of the time. If Blue loses his market and ends up winning a gammon, Blue loses 6% MWC by not doubling before the roll. If Blue wins a single game, Blue loses 2% MWC by not doubling. Very rough guess--I say Blue loses about 4% MWC on average when Blue loses the market. A few times Blue will lose the market and still lose the game. Since Blue loses his market about 11% of the time, Blue loses about 0.44% MWC by not doubling, then losing his market.

Blue loses 3% MWC when Blue doubles, then loses a single game. Estimating how often Blue loses a single game is a tougher task for me. If White can close both of Blue's checkers out and Blue's checkers on the 13 stay there, White wins about 70% gammons, but White has a lot of work to do to get there. I am guessing White wins a single game 25% of the time. This would mean Blue loses 0.75% MWC total through doubling, then losing a single game. No double/Take for me.

One other smallish thing that may be big enough to give some thought. Blue could refrain from doubling and White may throw a double later. I don't think this is enough to change my answer.

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