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Desperate Double

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 6 September 2018, at 12:30 a.m.

In Response To: Desperate Double (Karol Szczerek)

I'll guess that 60% of White's wins will be gammons so redoubling risks 40% of your MWC at 12a-2a (~5%) so the risk is 2%.

What are Blue's g chances? 4 numbers hit twice with chances of picking up a third while D3 hits and makes the 4-point. White does have the golden anchor so maybe 25% of Blue's wins will be gammons.

If ND and Blue wins a single game, the MWC at 10a-4a is ~18%; If R/T and Blue wins a single the MWC at 8a-4a is 26%. The gain from recubing is then 75% of 8% = 6%. NR and win a g gives Blue 26% MWC while R/T and win a g evens the match at 4a-4a with 50% MWC. The gain from these gammon wins is 25% of 24% = 6%. The total gain from redoubling is then 12%.

The doubling window then opens at 2/14, ~ 14%. Blue figures to win 7 or so of the immediate hitters, a few more after dance/no cover, and an occasional lucky win after White covers. So Blue is certainly in the doubling window and I learned the other day that you can sometimes cube when your not even in the window.

So this must be a redouble. Clear take for White of course.

Messages In This Thread

• Desperate Double
  Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 5 September 2018, at 9:51 p.m.
  • Desperate Double
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 6 September 2018, at 12:30 a.m.
    • Desperate Double
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 6 September 2018, at 3:33 p.m.
    • Desperate Double
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 6 September 2018, at 6:53 p.m.
      • Desperate Double
        John O'Hagan -- Friday, 7 September 2018, at 11:09 a.m.
      • Desperate Double
        Ray Kershaw -- Friday, 7 September 2018, at 12:36 p.m.
  • Desperate Double - RO & comments
    Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 8 September 2018, at 6:33 a.m.