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Rollout and Four VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 11 September 2018, at 1:28 a.m.

In Response To: OTB and RO (neilkaz)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aDCBBCa---a-------bccbAb--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

Original position


1.Rollout122/14eq: +1.0621
Player:
Opponent:		87.24% (G:37.68% B:0.25%)
12.76% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)		Conf.: �0.0015 (+1.0606...+1.0637) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds
2.Rollout122/16 5/3eq: +1.0361 (-0.0260)
Player:
Opponent:		84.13% (G:42.11% B:0.39%)
15.87% (G:0.69% B:0.02%)		Conf.: �0.0016 (+1.0345...+1.0378) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
1 6480 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Neil's rollout of his original position. Running all the way dominates -- by .026.


In Variant 1 below, a Blue spare is moved from 1pt to 5pt. This produces a bare upset, putting Blue's 22/16 5/3 on top.






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCCBBDa---a-------bccbAb--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1 (Blue spare is adjusted from 1pt to 5pt)


1.Rollout122/16 5/3eq: +1.102
Player:
Opponent:		86.48% (G:42.96% B:0.42%)
13.52% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.101...+1.104) - [99.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout122/14eq: +1.100 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		88.41% (G:38.47% B:0.36%)
11.59% (G:0.37% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.099...+1.102) - [1.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 24 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78160250
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


From the original position, switching White's 2pt to her 1pt makes Blue's 62 decision closer. And moving White's outfield blot from 15pt to 13pt makes Blue's decision closer. Making both changes causes a (small) upset, as demonstrated in Variant 2 below.






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aDCBBCa-----a-----bccbA-b-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2 (White's 2pt is moved to 1pt, and her 15pt blot to the 13pt)


1.Rollout122/16 5/3eq: +1.055
Player:
Opponent:		86.97% (G:37.24% B:0.38%)
13.03% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.053...+1.056) - [99.5%]
Duration: 3 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout122/14eq: +1.051 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		88.83% (G:32.61% B:0.27%)
11.17% (G:0.30% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.049...+1.053) - [0.5%]
Duration: 3 minutes 13 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45589264
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Back to the original position, Variant 3 below changes only the score -- to gammon go. Blue should definitely move the deuce inside his board:






White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 118
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aDCBBCa---a-------bccbAb--:0:0:1:62:0:1:1:2:10

Variant 3 (Gammon go)


1.Rollout122/16 5/3eq: +1.514
Player:
Opponent:		84.41% (G:41.31% B:1.39%)
15.59% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.513...+1.516) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout122/14eq: +1.502 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		85.99% (G:39.13% B:1.09%)
14.01% (G:0.41% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.501...+1.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45589264
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Finally (returning the score to Money/unlimited), let's change only the roll -- to 61. Again it is clear to move the 5pt spare, as shown in Variant 4 below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aDCBBCa---a-------bccbAb--:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 4 (Roll changed from 62 to 61)


1.Rollout122/16 5/4eq: +1.065
Player:
Opponent:		85.12% (G:42.57% B:0.39%)
14.88% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.063...+1.066) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
2.Rollout122/15eq: +1.042 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		86.20% (G:38.22% B:0.28%)
13.80% (G:0.54% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.040...+1.044) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds
3.Rollout122/16 2/1eq: +1.041 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		85.27% (G:39.93% B:0.26%)
14.73% (G:0.59% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.039...+1.043) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78160250
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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