[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Botched 21 -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 27 September 2018, at 5:28 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout and Cusp position (KenB)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
11 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--cCBBBB--A--A----bbbbcAaA:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:11:10

Original position


1.Rollout1Bar/24* 13/11eq: +0.6331
Player:
Opponent:		71.30% (G:36.64% B:3.07%)
28.70% (G:7.65% B:0.55%)		Conf.: �0.0181 (+0.6150...+0.6513) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24* 10/8eq: +0.5724 (-0.0607)
Player:
Opponent:		69.68% (G:36.16% B:3.09%)
30.32% (G:9.95% B:0.82%)		Conf.: �0.0199 (+0.5525...+0.5923) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24* 3/1eq: +0.5457 (-0.0874)
Player:
Opponent:		70.38% (G:34.25% B:2.50%)
29.62% (G:10.62% B:1.08%)		Conf.: �0.0213 (+0.5244...+0.5671) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/23 10/9eq: +0.4647 (-0.1684)
Player:
Opponent:		71.08% (G:20.68% B:0.85%)
28.92% (G:7.38% B:0.33%)		Conf.: �0.0134 (+0.4514...+0.4781) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
1 400 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Above is Ken's rollout of his original position. In a separate post, he showed a cusp variant (not diagrammed here), where Blue's 13pt checker is instead on his 6pt.

Below are my own variants. First, here is the same position at DMP:






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
1 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--cCBBBB--A--A----bbbbcAaA:0:0:1:12:0:0:0:1:10

Variant 1 (Double Match Point)


1.Rollout1Bar/23 10/9eq: +0.432
Player:
Opponent:		71.58% (G:20.33% B:2.29%)
28.42% (G:7.92% B:0.62%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.429...+0.434) - [89.9%]
Duration: 23 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/12eq: +0.430 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		71.48% (G:20.23% B:2.35%)
28.52% (G:7.65% B:0.58%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.428...+0.432) - [10.1%]
Duration: 22 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24* 13/11eq: +0.418 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		70.88% (G:40.00% B:11.28%)
29.12% (G:6.99% B:0.84%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.415...+0.420) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 25 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/24* 3/1eq: +0.407 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		70.33% (G:36.77% B:9.72%)
29.67% (G:10.20% B:1.88%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.403...+0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 12 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/24* 10/8eq: +0.389 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		69.43% (G:40.13% B:11.65%)
30.57% (G:9.47% B:1.70%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.386...+0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 25 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78160250
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Blue should not hit.

Returning to the original score (essentially Money), Variant 2 (below) shows what happens if one of White's 23pt checkers is nudged back to the 24pt:






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
11 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-abCBBBB--A--A----bbbbcAaA:1:-1:1:12:0:0:0:11:10

Variant 2 (One of White's 23pt checkers is moved back to her 24pt)


1.Rollout1Bar/23 10/9eq: +0.694
Player:
Opponent:		76.77% (G:27.76% B:1.67%)
23.23% (G:6.28% B:0.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.690...+0.697) - [100.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/12eq: +0.666 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		76.13% (G:26.88% B:1.64%)
23.87% (G:6.43% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.663...+0.670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24* 13/11eq: +0.646 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		71.35% (G:36.14% B:3.81%)
28.65% (G:7.12% B:0.45%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.641...+0.651) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 51 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/24* 10/8eq: +0.565 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:		69.51% (G:34.60% B:3.53%)
30.49% (G:9.43% B:0.83%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.554...+0.577) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 47 seconds
5.Rollout2Bar/24* 3/1* eq: +0.499 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent:		68.34% (G:33.26% B:2.51%)
31.66% (G:9.98% B:0.72%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.488...+0.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 27 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93559422
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93559422
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Finally, in Variant 3 (below), Black's 13pt checker is moved to his 10pt, causing a new candidate to dominate.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
11 point match
pip: 121
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--cCBBBB--B-------bbbbcAaA:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:11:10

Variant 3 (Black's 13pt checker is instead on his 10pt)


1.Rollout1Bar/24* 3/1eq: +0.526
Player:
Opponent:		69.09% (G:33.19% B:2.33%)
30.91% (G:9.51% B:0.55%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.515...+0.537) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24* 10/8eq: +0.488 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		67.33% (G:34.41% B:2.56%)
32.67% (G:10.21% B:0.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.477...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 01 second
3.Rollout1Bar/23 10/9eq: +0.410 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:		69.63% (G:19.30% B:1.00%)
30.37% (G:7.80% B:0.35%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.403...+0.418) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 27 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45589264
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.