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Bagaic -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 6 October 2018, at 2:46 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Bagaic? (David Levy)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 170
7 point match
pip: 66
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=cB-CCBCAA---c----b-eb-----:0:0:1:53:5:2:0:7:10

Original position


1.Rollout17/2 5/2eq: +2.447
Player:
Opponent:		93.79% (G:87.56% B:2.76%)
6.21% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+2.444...+2.450) - [97.7%]
Duration: 17 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 6/1eq: +2.442 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		92.92% (G:88.00% B:6.42%)
7.08% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.437...+2.446) - [2.3%]
Duration: 16 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 7/2eq: +2.435 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		93.13% (G:87.87% B:5.52%)
6.87% (G:0.45% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.431...+2.439) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 55 seconds
4.Rollout17/2 6/3eq: +2.415 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		92.93% (G:87.56% B:4.67%)
7.07% (G:0.70% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.411...+2.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 06 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78160250
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


This thread appears to have been abandoned.

My rollout for David's original position is shown above. Three moves are very close, with the blue ribbon going to the Bagai play.

In Variant 1 below, White's prime is stronger. The promotion of her 8pt to her 7pt may not seem like a big change, but it is enough to put the Bagai play into the back seat:






White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 168
7 point match
pip: 66
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=cB-CCBCAA---c-----beb-----:0:0:1:53:5:2:0:7:10

Variant 1 (White has her 7pt instead of her 8pt)


1.Rollout18/5 6/1eq: +2.449
Player:
Opponent:		93.12% (G:88.04% B:6.44%)
6.88% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.444...+2.453) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout17/2 5/2eq: +2.432 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		93.66% (G:87.17% B:2.70%)
6.34% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+2.428...+2.435) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 7/2eq: +2.419 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		92.94% (G:87.42% B:5.37%)
7.06% (G:0.53% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.415...+2.423) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 50 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45589264
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


In Variant 2 below, the original position is restored but the score is altered, from –2–5 to –3–5, and a third candidate rises to the top. With the usual reward of backgammons no longer capped by the score, Blue should make the four-builder slotting play.

Nack






White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 170
7 point match
pip: 66
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=cB-CCBCAA---c----b-eb-----:0:0:1:53:4:2:0:7:10

Variant 2 (Score is changed from –2–5 to –3–5)


1.Rollout18/5 7/2eq: +1.917
Player:
Opponent:		92.71% (G:87.19% B:4.83%)
7.29% (G:0.42% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.914...+1.921) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout17/2 5/2eq: +1.906 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		93.51% (G:86.96% B:3.20%)
6.49% (G:0.29% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.903...+1.909) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 6/1eq: +1.904 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		92.68% (G:87.53% B:3.77%)
7.32% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.901...+1.908) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds
4.Rollout17/2 6/3eq: +1.890 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		92.54% (G:86.92% B:3.99%)
7.46% (G:0.64% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.887...+1.893) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93559422
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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