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Closeout or play to pick up extra checker?

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Sunday, 21 October 2018, at 8:45 a.m.

In Response To: Closeout or play to pick up extra checker? (Mike Clapsadle)

Yes, I work with XG a lot and look at W/G numbers a lot. To a point I think with numbers in a lot of positions (especially endgames and cubes). 2 closed out with avg distribution vs a strong board is about 40% g rate. 1 closed out and 1 spare on the mid is about 10%. These are my reference points. Moving the spare from 13 to 11 pt I'd estimate only a few % more G, so certainly below 15%, but here opp has weak board and also an inside blot. Those 2 features coupled together are worth a few % themselves, ergo my conclusion of 15%+ gammons. This was my process.

In positions with similar decision type, imagining what the actual gammon rate might be is quite helpful (or even necessary) to judge if the other play might win a lot more. At least to me.

I apologize if my analysis seem to be pulled out of the blue sometimes. It's just the way I think about the game, in numbers.

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