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Estimating Game winning chances

Posted By: Michael
Date: Sunday, 4 November 2018, at 4:40 p.m.

At the position below I needed to estimate the on roll player's GWC %.
The best I could come up with was 23%, but to my surprise the bot says it's 29.5%
This looks too high to me and I can't figure out how the bot came up with that number.
How would you calculate it?

is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 87
7 point match
pip: 138
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=----BBBCBa---B--abbbAcb-bA:1:-1:1:00:4:4:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 29.46% (G:4.21% B:0.19%) 29.39% (G:4.44% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 70.54% (G:29.71% B:0.21%) 70.61% (G:30.13% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities -0.664 -0.822
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.807
Redouble/Take:-0.822 (-0.015)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.807)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.8%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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