BGonline.org Forums

65 Early Game - Rollout

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Friday, 9 November 2018, at 4:45 p.m.

In Response To: 65 Early Game (Karol Szczerek)

The correct play is 24/13.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-C--AeD---c-eA---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.	Rollout1	24/13	eq: -0,214
	Player: Opponent: 45,43% (G:7,62% B:0,29%) 54,57% (G:13,20% B:0,42%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,220...-0,207) - [100,0%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 11/6	eq: -0,235 (-0,021)
	Player: Opponent: 44,55% (G:9,34% B:0,31%) 55,45% (G:13,38% B:0,53%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,242...-0,228) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
3.	Rollout2	20/9	eq: -0,252 (-0,038)
	Player: Opponent: 44,28% (G:9,39% B:0,37%) 55,72% (G:14,15% B:0,55%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,262...-0,242) - [0,0%] Duration: 36 minutes 39 seconds
4.	Rollout2	20/14 11/6	eq: -0,267 (-0,054)
	Player: Opponent: 44,08% (G:7,27% B:0,27%) 55,92% (G:14,00% B:0,39%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,277...-0,257) - [0,0%] Duration: 33 minutes 04 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

It was one of the two plays I rejected first though. Early game plays which leave one blot on the 20pt are still strongly unintuitive for me. White is behind so she will hit anything gladly, especially on her 5pt to start a great point or the other blot to start running while gaining a lot of ground in the race.

I liked 20/9 slightly more as White hits leave plenty of return shots that can start a nice attack for me. And my blots aren't anywhere near the points White would like to make next.

Then I considered the 2 stacking plays (11/6 with either 13/7 or 20/14) and in the end talked myself into making what was actually the worst of the four.

Messages In This Thread

• 65 Early Game
  Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 7 November 2018, at 8:47 p.m.
  • 65 Early Game
    Joseph Pregler -- Thursday, 8 November 2018, at 11:54 p.m.
  • 65 Early Game
    ah_clem -- Friday, 9 November 2018, at 2:52 p.m.
  • 65 Early Game - Rollout
    Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 9 November 2018, at 4:45 p.m.
    • 65 Early Game - Rollout and VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 4:36 p.m.