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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 30 January 2007, at 5:58 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Mon. Jan. 29th (Stick)

There's simply not enough volatility for a cube here. Sure you're a favorite, sure good things can happen, but I'm not even sure if you hit (say with a 5-2 like you did in the match) and then I was to fan I'd pass. You should wait a roll here, see if you can hit the blot and see if in response I grab a second anchor.


Match to 25, White leads 12 to 10
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
166
144
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.405
1.5% 23.5% 62.1% 37.9% 8.3% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.405 ±0.023, - live cube no double: 0.616 ±0.052, - live cube double take: 0.518 ±0.061. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 540 games (equiv. 12121 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0.594
2. Double, take 0.533 (-0.061)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.406)
Proper cube action: No double, take13%
Live cube
1. No double 0.616
2. Double, take 0.518 (-0.098)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.384)
Proper cube action: No double, take20%

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