BGonline.org Forums

65 Early Game - Rollout and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 4:36 p.m.

In Response To: 65 Early Game - Rollout (Karol Szczerek)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-C--AeD---c-eA---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	24/13	eq: -0,214
	Player: Opponent: 45,43% (G:7,62% B:0,29%) 54,57% (G:13,20% B:0,42%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,220...-0,207) - [100,0%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 11/6	eq: -0,235 (-0,021)
	Player: Opponent: 44,55% (G:9,34% B:0,31%) 55,45% (G:13,38% B:0,53%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,242...-0,228) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
3.	Rollout2	20/9	eq: -0,252 (-0,038)
	Player: Opponent: 44,28% (G:9,39% B:0,37%) 55,72% (G:14,15% B:0,55%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,262...-0,242) - [0,0%] Duration: 36 minutes 39 seconds
4.	Rollout2	20/14 11/6	eq: -0,267 (-0,054)
	Player: Opponent: 44,08% (G:7,27% B:0,27%) 55,92% (G:14,00% B:0,39%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,277...-0,257) - [0,0%] Duration: 33 minutes 04 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Karol's rollout of his original position (64R-42S-54@-65). Best is the straightforward "lover's leap."

What happens if we move back a Black spare from 6pt to midpoint? In that case...

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 168 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bD-C--AeE---c-eA---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 (Black spare moved from 6pt to midpoint)

1.	Rollout1	13/7 11/6	eq: -0.263
	Player: Opponent: 43.86% (G:8.29% B:0.32%) 56.14% (G:13.51% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.271...-0.256) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/13	eq: -0.310 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 43.21% (G:6.46% B:0.26%) 56.79% (G:14.18% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.317...-0.302) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
3.	Rollout1	20/9	eq: -0.312 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 42.96% (G:8.32% B:0.32%) 57.04% (G:14.38% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.320...-0.304) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
4.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.325 (-0.062)
	Player: Opponent: 42.45% (G:9.67% B:0.39%) 57.55% (G:15.87% B:0.87%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.342...-0.308) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
5.	Rollout2	20/14 11/6	eq: -0.342 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 42.25% (G:6.67% B:0.24%) 57.75% (G:14.20% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.352...-0.331) - [0.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 21 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 34574574 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 34574574 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

From the original position, we'll move a White spare from midpoint to 6pt, as shown below. In this case, a third play finds its way to the top.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 152 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-C--AdD---c-fA---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 (White spare moved from midpoint to 6pt)

1.	Rollout1	20/9	eq: -0.291
	Player: Opponent: 43.35% (G:9.38% B:0.37%) 56.65% (G:15.80% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.299...-0.284) - [99.5%] Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 11/6	eq: -0.304 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 42.98% (G:8.46% B:0.30%) 57.02% (G:14.46% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.311...-0.298) - [0.5%] Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/13	eq: -0.311 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 43.08% (G:6.39% B:0.27%) 56.92% (G:14.18% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.318...-0.304) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
4.	Rollout1	20/14 11/6	eq: -0.328 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 42.76% (G:6.98% B:0.26%) 57.24% (G:14.94% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.335...-0.321) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 34574574 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• 65 Early Game
  Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 7 November 2018, at 8:47 p.m.
  • 65 Early Game
    Joseph Pregler -- Thursday, 8 November 2018, at 11:54 p.m.
  • 65 Early Game
    ah_clem -- Friday, 9 November 2018, at 2:52 p.m.
  • 65 Early Game - Rollout
    Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 9 November 2018, at 4:45 p.m.
    • 65 Early Game - Rollout and VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 4:36 p.m.