This is an easy take acc. to XG standard rollout.
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| XGID=bCEE--Aa-----------bbdbbA-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71,23% (G:12,86% B:0,38%) | 71,65% (G:12,72% B:0,38%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28,77% (G:7,25% B:0,03%) | 28,35% (G:7,40% B:0,03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,484 | +0,980 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,683 (-0,166) | ±0,006 (+0,677..+0,689) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,849 | ±0,010 (+0,840..+0,859) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,151) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I quickly passed this OTB in a quick online match and only later decided to analyze it.
There are some things to note. Firstly, White has usually only one shot at the extra blot as Blue will secure it with most rolls if missed and isn't prone to expose later on. Another two things to note is White's homeboard attackers slightly awkward placement and Blue's second blot position which gives some pick'n'pass or loose hit possibilities if White enters with one checker on the 4 or 5 pt. If White had the spares on 5 & 6 pt. and Blue's blot was on his 4pt. instead, this would be already a small pass (.024 acc. to 1296 3ply/XGR rollout).
OK, but such a comparative analysis of very close variants is sort of worthless in non-typical positions like this. So unless you had a ton of experience for judging this sort of position OTB intuitively, how would you "know" it's a take?
Counting each major case would be a ton of work. But one might look for a variant which is much easier to judge and go from there. I think a reasonable try would be to imagine a variant where White has entered both guys, and Blue secured his homeboard blot. See below.
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| XGID=-DEEaa-a-----------bbdbbA-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Now this is not as tough of a position to judge as it seems White doesn't have very strong attack yet and her other blots are so far behind, that Blue has to have a lot of chances to win this. OK, probably not a take as Blue hasn't beared off any checker yet and White has already 2 attackers in the homeboard, but you could expect it to be not a big pass either (actually, acc. to 1296 3ply/XGR rollout it's a .082 pass).
Now, is the original position better or worse? OK, White has a direct shot at the 2nd blot but if she misses, Blue might have several chances to escape before White can enter and threat attacking on her ace pt. If you are able to see that this trade-off strongly favors Blue, you would easily conclude that the original position has to be a take as well.