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Mochy/Tish PvP problem--XG analysis

Posted By: Kevin McDonough
Date: Tuesday, 11 December 2018, at 10:57 p.m.

In Response To: Mochy/Tish PvP problem (Kevin McDonough)





White is Mochy

score: 0
pip: 96
11 point match
pip: 113
score: 1

Blue is Allen
XGID=a-BBCBB-----Aa--AAbbcbbbA-:2:1:1:32:1:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout117/15 16/13* eq: -0.369
Player:
Opponent:		31.72% (G:7.50% B:1.02%)
68.28% (G:13.06% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.378...-0.360) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout112/7eq: -0.527 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:		28.88% (G:4.93% B:0.53%)
71.12% (G:20.74% B:1.83%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.536...-0.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds
3.XG Roller++16/13* 4/2eq: -0.389 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		29.90% (G:6.39% B:0.40%)
70.10% (G:11.50% B:0.61%)
4.XG Roller++16/13* 12/10eq: -0.395 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		29.36% (G:6.31% B:0.41%)
70.64% (G:10.92% B:0.57%)
5.XG Roller++16/13* 13/11eq: -0.398 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		29.34% (G:6.51% B:0.46%)
70.66% (G:11.23% B:0.61%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Hitting is correct, by a rather wide margin. When watching the match, I liked Allen's play (12-7), thinking that hitting a second man might delay white from entering before blue crashes.

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