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Redoubled from the bar. ROLLOUT & VARIANTS.

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 28 December 2018, at 4:03 a.m.

In Response To: Redoubled from the bar. ROLLOUT & comments. (Karol Szczerek)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 116 Unlimited Game pip: 58 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bCEE--Aa-----------bbdbbA-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Original position

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71,23% (G:12,86% B:0,38%)	71,65% (G:12,72% B:0,38%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28,77% (G:7,25% B:0,03%)	28,35% (G:7,40% B:0,03%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,484	+0,980
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0,683 (-0,166)	±0,006 (+0,677..+0,689)
Redouble/Take:	+0,849	±0,010 (+0,840..+0,859)
Redouble/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,151)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds

Above is Karol's rollout of his original position. Redouble / Take.

Below are two variants. When Blue's 3pt spares are moved in one direction, it's Redouble / Pass. When they are moved in the other direction, it's No Redouble.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 116 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 52 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bFEB--Aa-----------bbdbbA-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 (Three Blue spares are moved from 3pt to 1pt)

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	73.87% (G:15.37% B:0.50%)	74.28% (G:15.11% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26.13% (G:6.55% B:0.01%)	25.72% (G:6.68% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.571	+1.149
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.772 (-0.228)	±0.003 (+0.769..+0.775)
Redouble/Take:	+1.029 (+0.029)	±0.005 (+1.024..+1.033)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1730296 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 116 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 61 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bCEBC-Aa-----------bbdbbA-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 (Three Blue spares are moved from 3pt to 4pt)

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	61.78% (G:12.26% B:0.39%)	62.35% (G:11.98% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.22% (G:13.10% B:0.07%)	37.65% (G:13.36% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.231	+0.472
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.402	±0.003 (+0.398..+0.405)
Redouble/Take:	+0.357 (-0.045)	±0.006 (+0.350..+0.363)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.598)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.6%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 7407006 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 11 seconds

If only two Blue 3pt spares are moved to the 4pt (same as above with Blue 4/3), my 5k rollout (not shown) indicates that White is only .008 short of a redouble.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Redoubled from the bar.
  Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 5 December 2018, at 10:39 p.m.
  • Redoubled from the bar.
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 6 December 2018, at 1:43 p.m.
    • Redoubled from the bar.
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 6 December 2018, at 11:48 p.m.
  • Redoubled from the bar. ROLLOUT & comments.
    Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 8 December 2018, at 12:31 p.m.
    • Redoubled from the bar. ROLLOUT & VARIANTS.
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 28 December 2018, at 4:03 a.m.