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42 to play -- EXPLANATION

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 12 January 2019, at 5:42 p.m.

In Response To: 42 to play -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS (Casper Van der Tak)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 120 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 131 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BDCBa-AbB-ababbb-bA--:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
White owns her 9pt

1.	Rollout1	13/9* 11/9	eq: +0.142
	Player: Opponent: 53.15% (G:16.49% B:0.85%) 46.85% (G:12.71% B:0.55%) Conf.: � 0.008 (+0.134...+0.150) - [100.0%] Duration: 33 minutes 22 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/17*	eq: +0.115 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 54.26% (G:13.45% B:0.80%) 45.74% (G:13.96% B:0.60%) Conf.: � 0.007 (+0.108...+0.123) - [0.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 38 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73431211 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 121 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 131 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BDCBa-AbB-baabbb-bA--:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
White owns her 10pt

1.	Rollout1	23/17*	eq: +0.154
	Player: Opponent: 55.17% (G:13.66% B:0.71%) 44.83% (G:13.33% B:0.58%) Conf.: � 0.007 (+0.147...+0.161) - [99.9%] Duration: 31 minutes 04 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/9* 11/9	eq: +0.138 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 52.73% (G:17.32% B:0.90%) 47.27% (G:12.72% B:0.56%) Conf.: � 0.008 (+0.130...+0.146) - [0.1%] Duration: 34 minutes 54 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73431211 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Ah, I see now that you were being coy / considerate. In truth, I hadn't intended to follow up at all, unless someone responded.

For anyone who hasn't caught on or read carefully, the correct choice of play depends on whether it leaves the opponent good relevant 6s (61 62 64), linking the two outfield blots. If 16/10 would link (first position), then spoil that link by pointing on the 9pt. If 16/10 would not link (second position), hit on the 17pt.

The impact of this factor is .042, and it happens to swing the choice from positive to negative in this position.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 42 to play
  benf -- Thursday, 3 January 2019, at 10:37 p.m.
  • 42 to play
    Ian Terry -- Friday, 4 January 2019, at 8:01 a.m.
  • 42 to play
    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 4 January 2019, at 8:19 a.m.
    • 42 to play
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 5 January 2019, at 5:57 p.m.
  • 42 to play - Answer
    benf -- Sunday, 6 January 2019, at 8:00 p.m.
    • 42 to play -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 6 January 2019, at 9:46 p.m.
      • 42 to play -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
        Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 January 2019, at 11:02 a.m.
        • 42 to play -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 9 January 2019, at 1:31 a.m.
          • 42 to play -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
            Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 11 January 2019, at 8:24 a.m.
            • 42 to play -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
              Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 12 January 2019, at 5:45 a.m.
              • 42 to play -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
                Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 12 January 2019, at 7:40 a.m.
                • 42 to play -- EXPLANATION
                  Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 12 January 2019, at 5:42 p.m.