Four Related Positions -- ROLLOUTS

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Four Related Positions -- ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 15 January 2019, at 1:31 a.m.

In Response To: Four Related Positions (Nack Ballard)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--a--BCaC--BbC---ccdAAa---:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Position 1 (Original)

1. Rollout¹ 11/9 8/7* eq: +0.390
Player:
Opponent: 59.88% (G:17.34% B:0.79%)
40.12% (G:13.57% B:1.08%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (+0.381...+0.399) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 56 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/7* 7/5 eq: +0.336 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent: 58.30% (G:15.84% B:0.67%)
41.70% (G:11.95% B:0.45%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+0.329...+0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 09 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/7* eq: +0.314 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent: 57.94% (G:16.12% B:0.73%)
42.06% (G:12.67% B:0.62%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (+0.306...+0.322) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 28 seconds
4. Rollout² 8/7* 6/4 eq: +0.210 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent: 55.80% (G:15.32% B:0.70%)
44.20% (G:16.00% B:1.02%) Conf.: ą 0.018 (+0.192...+0.228) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 07 seconds
5. Rollout² 21/20 13/11 eq: +0.191 (-0.199)
Player:
Opponent: 53.74% (G:11.91% B:0.42%)
46.26% (G:7.00% B:0.23%) Conf.: ą 0.012 (+0.179...+0.203) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 35 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65229227
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65229227
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Sebaastian hasn't yet posted a rollout for his original position, so I did my own rollout. It is numbered Position 1. See above.
With the same 21 roll, I posted some related positions (2, 3 and 4). After posting, I found yet another, which I'm numbering Position 5. These five positions each have a single change and a different best play.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--a--BCaC--BbC---cceAA----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Position 2 (White's 3pt checker is back on her 6pt)

1. Rollout¹ 8/7* 7/5 eq: +0.368
Player:
Opponent: 59.21% (G:16.45% B:0.67%)
40.79% (G:10.93% B:0.45%) Conf.: ą 0.015 (+0.353...+0.383) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 53 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 11/9 8/7* eq: +0.287 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent: 57.86% (G:15.66% B:0.69%)
42.14% (G:13.79% B:1.08%) Conf.: ą 0.022 (+0.265...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 46 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/7* eq: +0.267 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent: 57.11% (G:14.51% B:0.63%)
42.89% (G:11.98% B:0.59%) Conf.: ą 0.015 (+0.252...+0.282) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 44 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/11 eq: +0.219 (-0.150)
Player:
Opponent: 54.69% (G:12.26% B:0.37%)
45.31% (G:6.42% B:0.18%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (+0.206...+0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 30 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73431211
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--a-B-CaC--BbC---ccdAAa---:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Position 3 (Blue owns his 4pt instead of 5pt)

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/7* eq: +0.340
Player:
Opponent: 58.34% (G:17.22% B:0.80%)
41.66% (G:12.87% B:0.63%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (+0.332...+0.348) - [100.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 41 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/7* 7/5 eq: +0.292 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent: 57.27% (G:16.64% B:0.79%)
42.73% (G:13.65% B:0.65%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (+0.284...+0.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 05 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 11/9 8/7* eq: +0.260 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent: 56.56% (G:17.00% B:0.79%)
43.44% (G:14.69% B:1.10%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (+0.252...+0.268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 07 seconds
4. Rollout² 21/20 13/11 eq: +0.221 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent: 54.37% (G:12.59% B:0.43%)
45.63% (G:6.86% B:0.25%) Conf.: ą 0.012 (+0.209...+0.233) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 02 seconds
5. Rollout² 8/7* 6/4 eq: +0.199 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent: 55.34% (G:16.21% B:0.68%)
44.66% (G:14.13% B:0.80%) Conf.: ą 0.016 (+0.183...+0.214) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73431211
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73431211
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Casper and Christian correctly identified the best play in the first three positions. The fourth position below is tricky, and they voted for the second best play, which in fairness is "tied" (according to Ballard/Weaver scale).

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--a---EaC--BbC---ccdAAa---:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Position 4 (Blue's two 5pt checkers are back on his 6pt)

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 6/4 eq: -0.047
Player:
Opponent: 47.97% (G:10.76% B:0.37%)
52.03% (G:10.65% B:0.33%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.054...-0.040) - [96.8%]
Duration: 52 minutes 23 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/11 eq: -0.057 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent: 47.24% (G:9.66% B:0.31%)
52.76% (G:8.64% B:0.26%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.064...-0.049) - [3.2%]
Duration: 45 minutes 36 seconds
3. Rollout² 13/11 8/7* eq: -0.125 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent: 47.26% (G:11.82% B:0.52%)
52.74% (G:17.11% B:0.78%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.139...-0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 12 seconds
4. Rollout² 8/7* 7/5 eq: -0.157 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent: 46.79% (G:11.50% B:0.52%)
53.21% (G:17.66% B:0.87%) Conf.: ą 0.016 (-0.173...-0.140) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 16 seconds
5. Rollout² 21/20 8/6 eq: -0.160 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent: 44.83% (G:9.36% B:0.30%)
55.17% (G:9.92% B:0.32%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.171...-0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 13 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30960182
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30960182
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

The second best play in the position 4 (above) becomes the best play in the fifth position below. The difference is in Blue's 8pt/6pt distribution. It is if he "unplayed" 31P.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--a---DaD--BbC---ccdAAa---:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Position 5 (Blue's 5pt is unmade; roll of 31 unplayed)

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/11 eq: -0.035
Player:
Opponent: 47.97% (G:9.51% B:0.33%)
52.03% (G:8.57% B:0.25%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.041...-0.028) - [99.5%]
Duration: 50 minutes 02 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/7* eq: -0.047 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent: 49.46% (G:11.92% B:0.54%)
50.54% (G:16.53% B:0.78%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.055...-0.040) - [0.5%]
Duration: 58 minutes 29 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 21/20 6/4 eq: -0.052 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent: 47.93% (G:10.21% B:0.38%)
52.07% (G:10.55% B:0.31%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.060...-0.045) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 13 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/20 8/6 eq: -0.080 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent: 46.74% (G:9.54% B:0.31%)
53.26% (G:9.07% B:0.27%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.087...-0.074) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 40 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 8/7* 7/5 eq: -0.081 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent: 48.78% (G:11.67% B:0.52%)
51.22% (G:16.86% B:0.82%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.090...-0.073) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
6. Rollout² 11/9 8/7* eq: -0.126 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent: 47.82% (G:11.65% B:0.47%)
52.18% (G:18.80% B:1.41%) Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.141...-0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 44 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 43483932
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 43483932
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Real strange one
Sebastiaan Kuijs -- Monday, 7 January 2019, at 8:44 p.m.
- Four Related Positions
  Nack Ballard -- Monday, 7 January 2019, at 9:25 p.m.
  - Four Related Positions
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 January 2019, at 10:45 a.m.
    - Four Related Positions
      Christian munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 8 January 2019, at 10:04 p.m.
      - Four Related Positions
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 9 January 2019, at 8:03 a.m.
      - Four Related Positions
        Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 15 January 2019, at 7:56 a.m.
  - Four Related Positions
    Michael -- Thursday, 10 January 2019, at 11:11 a.m.
  - Four Related Positions -- ROLLOUTS
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 15 January 2019, at 1:31 a.m.
    - Four Related Positions -- ROLLOUTS
      Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 15 January 2019, at 7:07 a.m.
    - Four Related Positions -- ROLLOUTS
      Sebastiaan Kuijs -- Tuesday, 15 January 2019, at 7:58 a.m.
    - Thanks!
      Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 15 January 2019, at 7:59 a.m.
- Real strange one
  neilkaz -- Tuesday, 8 January 2019, at 6:25 p.m.
  - Real strange one
    Mike Clapsadle -- Tuesday, 8 January 2019, at 6:44 p.m.
    - Real strange one
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 8 January 2019, at 8:17 p.m.
- Real strange one
  Joseph Pregler -- Tuesday, 8 January 2019, at 8:29 p.m.
  - Real strange one
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 8 January 2019, at 9:10 p.m.
- Real strange one
  ah_clem -- Friday, 11 January 2019, at 2:16 p.m.

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:
If necessary, enter your password below:
Password: