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7 point disease - just to fool around -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 22 February 2019, at 6:55 p.m.

In Response To: 7 point disease - just to fool around :) (svilo)

		White is Player 2 score: 7 pip: 177 17 point match pip: 107 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BcaBBBB---BbCa--bad---a--:1:-1:1:42:10:7:0:17:10
Variant 1

1.	Rollout1	11/9 7/3*	eq: +0.762
	Player: Opponent: 73.54% (G:48.52% B:4.60%) 26.46% (G:3.77% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.757...+0.766) - [94.9%] Duration: 47 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/3* 5/3	eq: +0.757 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 73.90% (G:47.26% B:3.75%) 26.10% (G:3.68% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.753...+0.761) - [5.1%] Duration: 45 minutes 16 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/11 7/3*	eq: +0.741 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 72.89% (G:47.27% B:4.52%) 27.11% (G:3.35% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.735...+0.747) - [0.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 50 seconds
4.	Rollout2	7/5 7/3*	eq: +0.727 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 72.96% (G:45.65% B:3.80%) 27.04% (G:3.19% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.721...+0.732) - [0.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 08 seconds
5.	Rollout3	13/9 11/9	eq: +0.570 (-0.191)
	Player: Opponent: 70.01% (G:37.67% B:2.80%) 29.99% (G:3.35% B:0.13%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.560...+0.581) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36223632 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36223632 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36223632 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Given that this thread was initiated five days ago, it seems likely that no follow-up rollout is intended.

In order to start at one end of the loose/tight spectrum, let's begin with my "Variant 1" above. The most aggressive hit of 11/9 7/3* tops the rollout (albeit barely). Blue gains builders on three separate points to cover (or hit back on) the 3pt. He goes all out to prevent White from making the second anchor.

Merely nudging White's offensive position back 2 pips (the 2pt and 7pt checkers 1 pip each) reaches Svilo's original position. See my rollout below. As you can see, the loosest play is dramatically demoted (from +.005 to –.062)!

		White is Player 2 score: 7 pip: 179 17 point match pip: 107 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BcaBBBB---BbCa--c-d--a---:1:-1:1:42:10:7:0:17:10
Original (2pt and 7pt checkers moved back 1 pip each)

1.	Rollout1	7/3* 5/3	eq: +0.737
	Player: Opponent: 73.12% (G:47.48% B:3.39%) 26.88% (G:3.57% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.726...+0.747) - [100.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 50 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/9 7/3*	eq: +0.674 (-0.062)
	Player: Opponent: 71.54% (G:46.62% B:3.57%) 28.46% (G:4.24% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.663...+0.685) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 29 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/11 7/3*	eq: +0.670 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 71.13% (G:46.14% B:3.79%) 28.87% (G:3.72% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.659...+0.682) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 33 seconds
4.	Rollout1	7/5 7/3*	eq: +0.665 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 71.22% (G:45.44% B:3.78%) 28.78% (G:3.67% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.654...+0.676) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/9 11/9	eq: +0.500 (-0.237)
	Player: Opponent: 67.97% (G:37.43% B:2.91%) 32.03% (G:3.76% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.490...+0.510) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 41518972 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Next, let's cover White's 3pt (8/3). Now a third hitting play emerges as best (see Variant 2 below).

		White is Player 2 score: 7 pip: 174 17 point match pip: 107 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BcaBBBB---BbCa--b-d--b---:1:-1:1:42:10:7:0:17:10
Variant 2 (Compared to original, White covered with 8/3)

1.	Rollout1	7/5 7/3*	eq: +0.599
	Player: Opponent: 70.79% (G:40.85% B:2.92%) 29.21% (G:4.24% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.594...+0.605) - [100.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/3* 5/3	eq: +0.582 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 70.42% (G:41.52% B:2.75%) 29.58% (G:5.22% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.577...+0.587) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 01 second
3.	Rollout2	13/11 7/3*	eq: +0.549 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 69.48% (G:40.23% B:2.93%) 30.52% (G:5.07% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.539...+0.558) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds
4.	Rollout2	11/9 7/3*	eq: +0.484 (-0.116)
	Player: Opponent: 68.35% (G:40.39% B:3.16%) 31.65% (G:6.83% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.473...+0.494) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/9 11/9	eq: +0.468 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 68.18% (G:33.48% B:2.34%) 31.82% (G:3.96% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.457...+0.478) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36223632 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36223632 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Finally, add 22N (Near, 13/11(2) 6/4(2)) to White's position (see below). Now White shouldn't hit at all.

		White is Player 2 score: 7 pip: 166 17 point match pip: 107 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BcaBBBB---B-Cc--b-b-bb---:1:-1:1:42:10:7:0:17:10
Variant 3 (Compared to Variant 2, White added 22N)

1.	Rollout1	13/9 11/9	eq: +0.418
	Player: Opponent: 67.93% (G:29.38% B:1.86%) 32.07% (G:4.63% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.413...+0.423) - [100.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 14 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/5 7/3*	eq: +0.385 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 66.28% (G:35.27% B:2.68%) 33.72% (G:6.86% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.379...+0.390) - [0.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 54 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/7	eq: +0.357 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 65.82% (G:28.58% B:1.88%) 34.18% (G:4.59% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.348...+0.367) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 08 seconds
4.	Rollout2	7/3* 5/3	eq: +0.339 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 65.60% (G:35.09% B:2.63%) 34.40% (G:8.22% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.328...+0.350) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/11 7/3*	eq: +0.304 (-0.113)
	Player: Opponent: 64.46% (G:34.34% B:2.64%) 35.54% (G:8.26% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.294...+0.315) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 46 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36223632 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36223632 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Blue's motivation to eschew the hit is based not only on safety. In the case that White rolls an ace (before Blue is able to justify an attack there), her backgame timing is less likely to hold up than in the previous positions.

Nack