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51 at DMP -- VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 7 March 2019, at 5:03 p.m.

In Response To: 51 at DMP -- VARIANT (Casper Van der Tak)

Trying to see the differences: (1) The shift makes 66 after 6/5 a less effective roll, and (2), more general, forward going chances have improved slightly and backgame and holding game chances have decreased slightly. Net a small swing towards 6/5 compared to 3/2*. Do I overlook something?

I think reason #1 is negligible; the difference of differences is .010 (according to XGR++), and when divided by 36 it is seen only in the fourth decimal place.

Reason #2 arguably covers it, though it seems a bit broad and vague to me.

IMO, when White owns an extra point (here, her 11pt) that is in direct contact of Blue's forward-most anchor (his 20pt), the possibility of gaining time so as to keep that 20pt goes up in value. When White's extra point is merely seven away (her 12pt), Blue has more variations where he can reasonably break the 20pt (e.g., 20/12 with 62 or 53), thereby gaining more potential control of the outfield (and hopefully containing or challenging White's back checker) with less risk, while keeping checkers on the backmost points where greater goal-keeping contact is maintained.

Nack

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