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XG Total cost and Should have won and some stats

Posted By: Christian Plenz
Date: Friday, 8 March 2019, at 4:07 p.m.

In Response To: XG Total cost and Should have won and some stats (Maik Stiebler)

Thanks. Very interesting.

Scenario 1 Two perfect players cannot have a favorite by definition

= Favorite expectation (of imperfect evaluation) must be too high

Scenario 2 with perfect evaluation

"...being on the winning path is more error-prone than being on the losing path.."

Can this be translated to

on the winning path = had more luck so far = more to bottle away from now

= 'perfect evaluation' cannot be a perfect evaluation

Matches are between these extremes, a bit form here and a bit from there. And we have a bias. Favorite expectation is too high in the ex-post-analysis

Messages In This Thread

• XG Total cost and Should have won and some stats
  Christian Plenz -- Friday, 8 March 2019, at 2:01 a.m.
  • XG Total cost and Should have won and some stats
    Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 8 March 2019, at 6:57 a.m.
    • XG Total cost and Should have won and some stats
      Christian Plenz -- Friday, 8 March 2019, at 4:07 p.m.
      • Post match favourite
        Florin Popa -- Friday, 8 March 2019, at 4:16 p.m.
        • Post match favourite
          Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 8 March 2019, at 5:47 p.m.
          • Post match favourite
            Florin Popa -- Friday, 8 March 2019, at 8:37 p.m.
      • XG Total cost and Should have won and some stats
        Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 8 March 2019, at 5:33 p.m.
        • XG Total cost and Should have won and some stats
          Christian Plenz -- Friday, 8 March 2019, at 5:53 p.m.
  • XG Total cost and Should have won and some stats
    Florin Popa -- Friday, 8 March 2019, at 2:59 p.m.