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BGonline.org Forums
Re: Hickey/Stick - interesting 3-1
Posted By: stremba In Response To: Hickey/Stick - interesting 3-1 (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 30 January 2007, at 8:59 p.m.
White's biggest threat is to escape her back checker since after this roll you will be 15 pips behind in the race. This is a bigger threat than making her bar point, because you aren't going anywhere with any roll that contains a 4. Even 44 would leave you behind in the race, so you'd be staying put. Once you realize that, it's pretty simple. Count the rolls that escape white's checker after each move:
After making the bar point: 25 and 26 - 4 rolls After making the five point: 43, 44, 45 and 46 - 7 rolls After POH on the three point: 55 and 56 - 2 rolls
The correct play then must be to make the three point. After this play, you will more than likely either have white's checker pushed back to the ace or deuce point, you will have a triple shot at it on the 5 or bar point, or white will dance. All of these give you much better chances than if white escapes.
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