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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 28 March 2019, at 4:30 p.m.

In Response To: 51 to play vs. a 5/2 backgame (John O'Hagan)

I didn't even consider the best play of 11/6 10/9* OTB and chose clearing the 11 over 10/9*-4. The outfield blots are largely a mirage since White shouldn't break the 20-point to hit. This means only 65,64, and D5 hit and D5 is the only hit and cover number. The safe clearing play would be correct if Blue had a big lead in the race while bearing in against a 20-point holding game, but bearing in against a well-timed backgame is quite different. The blotty play is slightly better here.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 165
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 105
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBbBCBaBB---a-b-dab----:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout111/6 10/9* eq: +0.363
Player:
Opponent:		63.97% (G:26.59% B:1.09%)
36.03% (G:4.36% B:0.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.358...+0.368) - [99.4%]
Duration: 41 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout111/10 11/6eq: +0.355 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		66.42% (G:18.04% B:0.57%)
33.58% (G:3.34% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.350...+0.359) - [0.5%]
Duration: 36 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout210/9* 9/4eq: +0.346 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		63.35% (G:26.05% B:1.10%)
36.65% (G:4.22% B:0.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.336...+0.355) - [0.1%]
Duration: 9 minutes 19 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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