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Another position that XG is completely confused about

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 20 April 2019, at 7:38 p.m.

While playing against XG 3-ply, I stumbled upon a position that is similar to a position posted by David Levy last August. In the position below, XG was Blue. It's amusing watching XGR+ ding XG 3-ply and watching the verdict swing wildly depending on what rollout setting is used.


3-ply eval:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 91
Unlimited Game
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CB-B-E-a----BbbbcabAb----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 3-ply No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.72% (G:10.04% B:0.17%) 75.72% (G:10.04% B:0.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.28% (G:6.79% B:0.08%) 24.28% (G:6.79% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.548 +1.096
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.747 (-0.178)
Double/Take:+0.925
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.075)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release


4-ply eval:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 91
Unlimited Game
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CB-B-E-a----BbbbcabAb----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.30% (G:9.80% B:0.36%) 77.30% (G:9.80% B:0.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.70% (G:6.17% B:0.08%) 22.70% (G:6.17% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.585 +1.170
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.787 (-0.213)
Double/Take:+1.016 (+0.016)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release


XGR:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 91
Unlimited Game
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CB-B-E-a----BbbbcabAb----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.31% (G:9.34% B:0.22%) 67.08% (G:8.29% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.69% (G:9.64% B:0.10%) 32.92% (G:12.62% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities +0.424 +0.601
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.646
Double/Take:+0.447 (-0.199)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.354)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 26.5%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release


XGR+:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 91
Unlimited Game
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CB-B-E-a----BbbbcabAb----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.84% (G:9.21% B:0.34%) 75.84% (G:9.96% B:0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.16% (G:7.21% B:0.07%) 24.16% (G:8.08% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.520 +1.076
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.709
Double/Take:+0.238 (-0.471)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.291)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 38.2%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release


XGR++:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 91
Unlimited Game
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CB-B-E-a----BbbbcabAb----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.26% (G:9.25% B:0.28%) 65.75% (G:8.27% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.74% (G:7.86% B:0.08%) 34.25% (G:13.05% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.521 +0.538
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.729
Double/Take:+0.357 (-0.373)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.271)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 36.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release


3-ply/XGR rollout:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 91
Unlimited Game
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CB-B-E-a----BbbbcabAb----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.39% (G:9.13% B:0.30%) 69.97% (G:9.49% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.61% (G:8.31% B:0.11%) 30.03% (G:11.23% B:0.14%)
Cubeless Equities +0.478 +0.769
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.675±0.015 (+0.660..+0.690)
Double/Take:+0.615 (-0.060)±0.027 (+0.588..+0.642)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.325)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.4%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release


4-ply/4-ply rollout:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 91
Unlimited Game
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CB-B-E-a----BbbbcabAb----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.85% (G:8.99% B:0.32%) 75.84% (G:9.96% B:0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.15% (G:7.34% B:0.08%) 24.16% (G:8.08% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.516 +1.076
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.743 (-0.209)±0.016 (+0.728..+0.759)
Double/Take:+0.952±0.024 (+0.928..+0.977)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.048)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 42 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

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