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Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 6:13 a.m.

In Response To: Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ** (Justin Nowell)

POS 1
I'd grab the opportunity to get better control over the outfield while duping 5s and play 22/17 10/8. It feels more natural than 22/20 10/5 and is more flexible. I don't mind being hit too much as White has a gappy board and when he hits he mostly stays primed with 3 checkers. And some hits like [54] or [56] looks very weak. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if he shouldn't hit with these rolls.
22/17 10/8

POS 2
Many checkers in the zone, white's ace blot, making the 9 would strip the mid... looks like we must hit.
B/20 9/5*

POS 3
I don't see anything other than 2 down, really. Breaking the 20 is suicidal. 13/2 is killing a checker and harder to secure next roll. 8/2 8/3 is slightly safer but less flexible, so in the same ballpark as 13/2. 13/7 13/8

POS 4
Double looks very clear and strong. Play-on isn't an option as White looks too strong. What about take/pass? I'd put Blue's gammon rate at close to half of his wins. I'd judge White wins at at least 30% here but not much more as he doesn't have a strong containment threat. At 30% for White, the numbers for money (from Blue's perspective) are something about (.7 - .5) x 2 + .3 - .06 = .64 which is 1.28 minus .2 vig so a 1.08 pass already. At this score, a pass for sure then.
D/P

POS 5
Hate doubles. OK, first play that I see on auto-pilot is hit&clean with 18/10 13/9*(2). It feels very inflexible though, creating some risks next roll. 13/9*(2) 8/4(2) creates the risk immediatelly, so no. What else? No hit? We lead the race by a lot, so we don't really need to hit. 18/10 with 6/2(2) or 8/4(2)? The latter looks more flexible. I like it.
18/10 8/4(2)

BONUS
Wow. 8/7 for sure. Then choose between 13/9 and 6/2. Idk. Deanchor him, recirculate, loose hit inside, recirculate more or capitalize on his dances... Kill! I want to play 13/9 but I know all-in plays are often not best so I'm a little afraid 6/2 might be better.
OK give me 13/9 8/7

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