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MOCHY and MUCHY Challenges Quizzes -- ROLLOUTS / COMPARISONS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 1 May 2019, at 8:17 p.m.

In Response To: MUCHY Challenge Day 0 Warm-Up **Parallel QUIZ** (Nack Ballard)

Kudos to Svilo for having the courage to post his plays and give his reasons. (He got the majority right.)

Below there are five pairs of rollouts. You can view them side by side, if your window is wide.

In each pair, the first (left-hand) rollout was done by Justin, for his (original) Mochy Quiz position. The second (right-hand) rollout was done by me, for the parallel Muchy Quiz position. My caption identifies the single change between the two positions.

At the end of my caption, the swing in margin between the top play of the Mochy (original) play and the Muchy (variant) position, is given. For example, 11/5 6/5 is -.087 (from my own two-candidate rollout, not shown) in the Mochy position, and 24/23 21/15 is -.023 in the Muchy position, for a swing of .110.

To improve one's level of play, it is important to strive to understand how a single change can cause a large swing. There is a danger of forming an attachment to a singular theme that will produce a pat answer. For example, if one fails to properly account for the checker difference in the Position #3 pair, it could be easy to convince oneself OTB that the way to handle this category of position is universally to make the opponent's bar point, which in the case of the variant is a double whopper with cheese.

Nack

MOCHY (original) Position #1

		White is Kazuki score: 0 pip: 111 7 point match pip: 183 score: 0 Blue is Sebastian
XGID=---BB-D--a-Aa---bbbcbCbAB-:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	24/23 21/15	eq: -0.584
	Player: Opponent: 32.05% (G:3.84% B:0.22%) 67.95% (G:36.41% B:2.36%) Conf.: � 0.013 (-0.597...-0.571) - [80.9%] Duration: 4 minutes 59 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/15 6/5	eq: -0.592 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 33.55% (G:3.58% B:0.22%) 66.45% (G:37.40% B:5.45%) Conf.: � 0.013 (-0.605...-0.579) - [19.1%] Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds
3.	Rollout1	21/14	eq: -0.628 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 31.58% (G:2.76% B:0.15%) 68.42% (G:35.76% B:4.80%) Conf.: � 0.012 (-0.641...-0.616) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds
4.	Rollout1	21/15 11/10	eq: -0.644 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 31.41% (G:2.79% B:0.06%) 68.59% (G:36.72% B:4.46%) Conf.: � 0.012 (-0.655...-0.632) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
5.	Rollout1	24/23 11/5	eq: -0.666 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 27.77% (G:3.38% B:0.22%) 72.23% (G:33.62% B:1.49%) Conf.: � 0.011 (-0.677...-0.655) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 59 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21713491 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MUCHY (variant) Position #1

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 103 7 point match pip: 183 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BB-D--a-Aa----bbcdCbAB-:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:7:10
White's two 9pt checkers are now 5pt spares, Swing of .110

1.	Rollout1	11/5 6/5	eq: -0.471
	Player: Opponent: 35.18% (G:3.53% B:0.23%) 64.82% (G:31.89% B:3.11%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.476...-0.466) - [99.5%] Duration: 21 minutes 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/15 6/5	eq: -0.482 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 38.26% (G:3.83% B:0.36%) 61.74% (G:37.86% B:6.50%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.489...-0.476) - [0.5%] Duration: 29 minutes 20 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/23 11/5	eq: -0.490 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 34.49% (G:3.74% B:0.21%) 65.51% (G:33.33% B:1.97%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.495...-0.485) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 21 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/23 21/15	eq: -0.495 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 36.62% (G:4.30% B:0.27%) 63.38% (G:38.97% B:3.17%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.501...-0.488) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 37 seconds
5.	Rollout2	21/14	eq: -0.543 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 35.86% (G:3.04% B:0.17%) 64.14% (G:37.40% B:5.81%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.555...-0.532) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 28 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 40310402 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 40310402 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MOCHY (original) Position #2

		White is Kazuki score: 0 pip: 75 7 point match pip: 125 score: 0 Blue is Sebastian
XGID=-DBB-A-a---B---A---cd-fCa-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 55

1.	Rollout1	23/18(2) 15/5	eq: -0.612
	Player: Opponent: 22.77% (G:0.96% B:0.01%) 77.23% (G:15.75% B:0.11%) Conf.: � 0.005 (-0.617...-0.607) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/18 15/5 11/6	eq: -0.726 (-0.114)
	Player: Opponent: 19.90% (G:0.89% B:0.02%) 80.10% (G:19.41% B:0.62%) Conf.: � 0.005 (-0.732...-0.721) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds
3.	Rollout1	23/18 15/10 11/6(2)	eq: -0.734 (-0.122)
	Player: Opponent: 18.87% (G:0.54% B:0.01%) 81.13% (G:17.78% B:0.48%) Conf.: � 0.006 (-0.740...-0.728) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 01 second
4.	Rollout1	23/13 15/5	eq: -0.735 (-0.123)
	Player: Opponent: 17.80% (G:0.65% B:0.01%) 82.20% (G:15.46% B:0.40%) Conf.: � 0.005 (-0.741...-0.730) - [0.0%] Duration: 58.6 seconds
5.	Rollout1	23/18(2) 11/6(2)	eq: -0.745 (-0.133)
	Player: Opponent: 21.00% (G:1.18% B:0.03%) 79.00% (G:24.03% B:0.35%) Conf.: � 0.006 (-0.750...-0.739) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21713491 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MUCHY (variant) Position #2

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 75 7 point match pip: 124 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EAB-A-a---B---A---cd-fCa-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:7:10
A Blue 2pt checker is moved to his 1pt, Swing is .188

1.	Rollout1	15/5 11/6(2)	eq: -0.903
	Player: Opponent: 10.12% (G:0.14% B:0.00%) 89.88% (G:13.30% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.905...-0.901) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 29 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/18(2) 15/5	eq: -0.916 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 13.57% (G:0.41% B:0.01%) 86.43% (G:22.38% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.919...-0.913) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 57 seconds
3.	Rollout1	23/3	eq: -0.933 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 9.65% (G:0.14% B:0.00%) 90.35% (G:14.89% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.935...-0.931) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 02 seconds
4.	Rollout1	23/18 15/10 11/6(2)	eq: -0.935 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 12.36% (G:0.29% B:0.00%) 87.64% (G:21.17% B:0.63%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.937...-0.932) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 15 seconds
5.	Rollout1	23/13 15/5	eq: -0.941 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 11.42% (G:0.28% B:0.01%) 88.58% (G:19.58% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.943...-0.938) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 31 seconds
6.	Rollout1	23/18 15/5 11/6	eq: -0.946 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 12.56% (G:0.37% B:0.01%) 87.44% (G:22.50% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.949...-0.943) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 08 seconds
7.	Rollout2	23/13 11/6(2)	eq: -0.981 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 11.69% (G:0.29% B:0.00%) 88.31% (G:23.68% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.986...-0.977) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
8.	Rollout2	23/18(2) 11/6(2)	eq: -1.021 (-0.118)
	Player: Opponent: 13.46% (G:0.64% B:0.01%) 86.54% (G:31.84% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.025...-1.016) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38675696 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1944 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38675696 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MOCHY (original) Position #3

		White is Kazuki score: 2 pip: 143 7 point match pip: 149 score: 2 Blue is Sebastian
XGID=----BBCbB-A-bC--cc-e----B-:0:0:1:33:2:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	24/18(2)	eq: +0.024
	Player: Opponent: 50.57% (G:6.50% B:0.19%) 49.43% (G:5.72% B:0.14%) Conf.: � 0.010 (+0.015...+0.034) - [100.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 23 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/21(2) 13/10 6/3	eq: -0.071 (-0.095)
	Player: Opponent: 47.68% (G:8.59% B:0.24%) 52.32% (G:7.03% B:0.19%) Conf.: � 0.011 (-0.082...-0.060) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 03 seconds
3.	XG Roller++	24/21(2) 13/10 8/5	eq: -0.095 (-0.119)
	Player: Opponent: 46.07% (G:8.20% B:0.15%) 53.93% (G:6.72% B:0.18%)
4.	XG Roller++	24/21(2) 13/10 5/2	eq: -0.107 (-0.131)
	Player: Opponent: 45.90% (G:7.69% B:0.14%) 54.10% (G:6.94% B:0.20%)
5.	XG Roller++	24/15 13/10	eq: -0.128 (-0.153)
	Player: Opponent: 46.38% (G:7.90% B:0.20%) 53.62% (G:8.98% B:0.21%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21713491 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MUCHY (variant) Position #3

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 136 7 point match pip: 149 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBCbB-A-bC--bc-e---aB-:0:0:1:33:2:2:0:7:10
White's 9pt spare is moved to her 2pt, Swing is .362

1.	Rollout1	8/2(2)	eq: +0.059
	Player: Opponent: 50.49% (G:17.91% B:0.53%) 49.51% (G:12.78% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.053...+0.065) - [100.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 47 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/15 13/10	eq: +0.028 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 50.59% (G:11.64% B:0.46%) 49.41% (G:10.30% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.023...+0.034) - [0.0%] Duration: 53 minutes 59 seconds
3.	Rollout2	24/18(2)	eq: -0.027 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 48.71% (G:7.44% B:0.28%) 51.29% (G:5.89% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.037...-0.017) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 52 seconds
4.	Rollout2	24/21(2) 13/10 6/3	eq: -0.040 (-0.099)
	Player: Opponent: 48.48% (G:9.82% B:0.33%) 51.52% (G:7.20% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.050...-0.030) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 21 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45998678 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45998678 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MOCHY (original) Position #4

		White is Sebastian score: 2 pip: 125 7 point match pip: 136 score: 4 Blue is Kazuki
XGID=--B-BbBBB--BcAa--aBd-bb---:0:0:-1:21:2:4:0:7:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	13/11 13/12*	eq: -0.063
	Player: Opponent: 48.85% (G:17.39% B:1.18%) 51.15% (G:12.67% B:0.58%) Conf.: � 0.012 (-0.075...-0.050) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/12* 8/6	eq: -0.142 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 46.70% (G:14.94% B:0.63%) 53.30% (G:11.01% B:0.38%) Conf.: � 0.011 (-0.153...-0.130) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 35 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/12* 11/9	eq: -0.146 (-0.083)
	Player: Opponent: 47.24% (G:14.90% B:0.92%) 52.76% (G:13.50% B:0.55%) Conf.: � 0.013 (-0.159...-0.133) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds
4.	Rollout1	11/8	eq: -0.180 (-0.117)
	Player: Opponent: 44.05% (G:7.55% B:0.37%) 55.95% (G:6.06% B:0.17%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.189...-0.170) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 23 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/12* 12/10	eq: -0.200 (-0.137)
	Player: Opponent: 46.20% (G:15.69% B:1.48%) 53.80% (G:14.73% B:0.70%) Conf.: � 0.012 (-0.212...-0.187) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21713491 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MUCHY (variant) Position #4

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 125 7 point match pip: 132 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--B-DbA--AaCb--bbbBb-b--:0:0:1:21:4:2:0:7:10
Blue owns his 1pt instead of his 3pt, Swing of .130

1.	Rollout1	11/8	eq: -0.209
	Player: Opponent: 43.54% (G:6.97% B:0.22%) 56.46% (G:6.26% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.214...-0.204) - [100.0%] Duration: 38 minutes 47 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/11 13/12*	eq: -0.222 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 44.15% (G:14.54% B:0.54%) 55.85% (G:13.61% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.228...-0.216) - [0.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 40 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/12* 8/6	eq: -0.288 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 42.68% (G:14.98% B:0.37%) 57.32% (G:12.78% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.029 (-0.317...-0.259) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds
4.	Rollout3	13/12* 11/9	eq: -0.291 (-0.083)
	Player: Opponent: 42.70% (G:14.28% B:0.36%) 57.30% (G:15.44% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.028 (-0.319...-0.264) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 11 seconds
5.	Rollout3	13/12* 12/10	eq: -0.317 (-0.108)
	Player: Opponent: 42.24% (G:13.36% B:0.64%) 57.76% (G:15.46% B:0.63%) Conf.: ± 0.029 (-0.346...-0.288) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38675696 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 227 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38675696 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 228 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38675696 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MOCHY (original) Position #5

		White is Kazuki score: 6 pip: 189 7 point match Crawford pip: 104 score: 5 Blue is Sebastian
XGID=eABBBBBA------A-bbAbbb--A-:0:0:1:53:5:6:1:7:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	6/3 6/1	eq: +2.578
	Player: Opponent: 92.00% (G:86.92% B:9.64%) 8.00% (G:0.58% B:0.02%) Conf.: � 0.008 (+2.570...+2.586) - [100.0%] Duration: 50.1 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/15 6/1	eq: +2.486 (-0.093)
	Player: Opponent: 90.19% (G:84.11% B:11.29%) 9.81% (G:1.26% B:0.04%) Conf.: � 0.009 (+2.477...+2.495) - [0.0%] Duration: 56.5 seconds
3.	Rollout1	14/11 6/1	eq: +2.484 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 89.95% (G:84.25% B:12.69%) 10.05% (G:1.03% B:0.04%) Conf.: � 0.009 (+2.475...+2.493) - [0.0%] Duration: 51.1 seconds
4.	Rollout1	14/9 4/1	eq: +2.469 (-0.109)
	Player: Opponent: 89.50% (G:83.96% B:13.71%) 10.50% (G:0.91% B:0.10%) Conf.: � 0.009 (+2.460...+2.478) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds
5.	Rollout1	14/6	eq: +2.435 (-0.144)
	Player: Opponent: 89.27% (G:82.46% B:18.70%) 10.73% (G:0.53% B:0.02%) Conf.: � 0.010 (+2.425...+2.445) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21713491 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MUCHY (variant) Position #5

		White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 189 7 point match Crawford pip: 104 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=eABBBBBA------A-bbAbbb--A-:0:0:1:53:4:6:1:7:10
Score changed from 2c (–2–1 crawford) to 3c, Swing of .220

1.	Rollout1	14/6	eq: +1.388
	Player: Opponent: 87.31% (G:79.54% B:29.40%) 12.69% (G:0.69% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.383...+1.393) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 44 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/13 7/4	eq: +1.371 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 87.28% (G:78.96% B:28.64%) 12.72% (G:0.63% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.366...+1.376) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 14 seconds
3.	Rollout1	14/9 4/1	eq: +1.369 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 86.54% (G:79.15% B:29.27%) 13.46% (G:1.10% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.365...+1.374) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 39 seconds
4.	Rollout1	14/11 6/1	eq: +1.369 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 86.98% (G:79.23% B:28.81%) 13.02% (G:1.14% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.364...+1.373) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 34 seconds
5.	Rollout1	14/9 7/4	eq: +1.368 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 87.13% (G:78.90% B:28.64%) 12.87% (G:0.71% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.363...+1.373) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds
6.	Rollout1	18/15 14/9	eq: +1.356 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 86.93% (G:78.86% B:28.26%) 13.07% (G:0.64% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.351...+1.361) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 26 seconds
7.	Rollout1	18/15 6/1	eq: +1.355 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 87.03% (G:79.30% B:28.10%) 12.97% (G:1.15% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.351...+1.360) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 51 seconds
8.	Rollout1	18/13 14/11	eq: +1.347 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 86.79% (G:78.60% B:27.96%) 13.21% (G:0.68% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.342...+1.352) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 03 seconds
9.	Rollout1	18/10	eq: +1.343 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 86.64% (G:78.63% B:27.90%) 13.36% (G:0.62% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.338...+1.348) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 56 seconds
10.	Rollout1	18/13 4/1	eq: +1.340 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 86.30% (G:78.88% B:28.09%) 13.70% (G:1.11% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.336...+1.345) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 29 seconds
11.	Rollout2	6/3 6/1	eq: +1.311 (-0.076)
	Player: Opponent: 88.44% (G:81.44% B:24.53%) 11.56% (G:0.73% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+1.303...+1.320) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38675696 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38675696 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• MUCHY Challenge Day 0 Warm-Up **Parallel QUIZ**
  Nack Ballard -- Monday, 29 April 2019, at 12:00 a.m.
  • MUCHY Challenge Day 0 Warm-Up **Parallel QUIZ**
    Justin Nowell -- Monday, 29 April 2019, at 4:20 a.m.
  • MUCHY Challenge Day 0 Warm-Up **Parallel QUIZ**
    Stick -- Monday, 29 April 2019, at 8:34 a.m.
  • MUCHY Challenge Day 0 Warm-Up **Parallel QUIZ**
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 29 April 2019, at 10:33 a.m.
  • MUCHY Challenge Day 0 Warm-Up **Parallel QUIZ**
    svilo -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 6:07 a.m.
  • MOCHY and MUCHY Challenges Quizzes -- ROLLOUTS / COMPARISONS
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 1 May 2019, at 8:17 p.m.
    • MOCHY and MUCHY Challenges Quizzes -- ROLLOUTS / COMPARISONS
      Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 2 May 2019, at 7:04 a.m.
      • MOCHY and MUCHY Challenges Quizzes -- ROLLOUTS / COMPARISONS
        Nack Ballard -- Friday, 3 May 2019, at 7:18 a.m.