Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ** **ROLLOUT RESULTS**

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Posted By: Justin Nowell
Date: Thursday, 2 May 2019, at 12:32 a.m.

In Response To: Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ** (Justin Nowell)

#1

White is Sebastian Wilkinson

score: 0
pip: 150

7 point match

pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Kazuki Yokota

XGID=--BaBbCB-----C-abb-cbbBA--:0:0:-1:52:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 22/17 10/8 eq: +0.900
Player:
Opponent: 71.65% (G:15.61% B:0.54%)
28.35% (G:4.64% B:0.16%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (+0.889...+0.911) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 22/15 eq: +0.829 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent: 69.52% (G:17.15% B:0.70%)
30.48% (G:6.07% B:0.36%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (+0.816...+0.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 07 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 22/20 10/5 eq: +0.820 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent: 69.64% (G:15.51% B:0.60%)
30.36% (G:5.37% B:0.28%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (+0.807...+0.833) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 59 seconds
4. XG Roller++ 22/17 6/4 eq: +0.781 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent: 68.61% (G:16.54% B:0.69%)
31.39% (G:6.26% B:0.19%)
5. XG Roller++ 10/5 6/4 eq: +0.676 (-0.224)
Player:
Opponent: 66.29% (G:16.56% B:0.64%)
33.71% (G:6.69% B:0.20%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54281668
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

#2

White is Sebastian Wilkinson

score: 2
pip: 155

7 point match

pip: 157
score: 2

Blue is Kazuki Yokota

XGID=aA-a--D-C--AcD--ad-eA--A--:0:0:-1:54:2:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 54

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 9/5* eq: +0.147
Player:
Opponent: 53.08% (G:15.33% B:0.78%)
46.92% (G:12.40% B:0.49%) Conf.: ą 0.014 (+0.134...+0.161) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 37 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/9 eq: +0.073 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent: 52.35% (G:13.73% B:0.72%)
47.65% (G:13.64% B:0.44%) Conf.: ą 0.016 (+0.057...+0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 12 seconds
3. XG Roller++ Bar/16 eq: -0.015 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent: 50.34% (G:12.45% B:0.58%)
49.66% (G:14.50% B:0.54%)
4. XG Roller++ Bar/20 6/2* eq: -0.021 (-0.168)
Player:
Opponent: 49.34% (G:13.64% B:0.65%)
50.66% (G:13.84% B:0.58%)
5. XG Roller++ Bar/21 9/4 eq: -0.040 (-0.187)
Player:
Opponent: 49.34% (G:12.78% B:0.54%)
50.66% (G:14.39% B:0.48%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54281668
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

#3

White is Kazuki Yokota

score: 2
pip: 120

7 point match

pip: 115
score: 2

Blue is Sebastian Wilkinson

XGID=-BB-bCB-B---bB---b-cBbbb--:0:0:1:65:2:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq: -0.042
Player:
Opponent: 48.69% (G:8.43% B:0.25%)
51.31% (G:6.80% B:0.23%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.050...-0.033) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/3 8/2 eq: -0.130 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent: 46.86% (G:9.21% B:0.21%)
53.14% (G:12.40% B:0.34%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (-0.139...-0.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/2 eq: -0.181 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent: 44.72% (G:7.45% B:0.22%)
55.28% (G:8.40% B:0.23%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.190...-0.172) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds
4. XG Roller++ 20/15 20/14 eq: -0.389 (-0.348)
Player:
Opponent: 41.86% (G:6.57% B:0.18%)
58.14% (G:22.87% B:0.53%)
5. XG Roller++ 20/9 eq: -0.619 (-0.577)
Player:
Opponent: 38.25% (G:10.73% B:0.36%)
61.75% (G:27.43% B:0.62%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54281668
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

#4

White is Kazuki Yokota

score: 2
pip: 142

7 point match

pip: 79
score: 2

Blue is Sebastian Wilkinson

XGID=aCCBbCb----AAB-----b-ccb--:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.94% (G:29.34% B:0.15%) 70.25% (G:29.67% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.06% (G:4.09% B:0.16%) 29.75% (G:4.07% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities +0.629 +1.416
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.842 (-0.158) ą0.011 (+0.831..+0.852)
Double/Take: +1.142 (+0.142) ą0.017 (+1.126..+1.159)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54281668
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 23 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

#5

White is Sebastian Wilkinson

score: 6
pip: 160

7 point match
Crawford

pip: 124
score: 2

Blue is Kazuki Yokota

XGID=----BBBaC---bB-bAbbdB-b-A-:0:0:-1:44:6:2:1:7:10
Blue to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 18/10 8/4(2) eq: +0.442
Player:
Opponent: 71.03% (G:21.23% B:0.38%)
28.97% (G:4.33% B:0.29%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.438...+0.446) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 18/10 6/2(2) eq: +0.409 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 69.41% (G:19.65% B:0.43%)
30.59% (G:3.69% B:0.34%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.404...+0.413) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 18 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 18/10 13/9*(2) eq: +0.369 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent: 67.06% (G:25.55% B:0.64%)
32.94% (G:4.74% B:0.34%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.364...+0.374) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
4. XG Roller++ 13/9*(2) 8/4(2) eq: +0.264 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent: 61.65% (G:25.09% B:0.95%)
38.35% (G:6.62% B:0.25%)
5. XG Roller++ 13/9*(2) 6/2(2) eq: +0.228 (-0.214)
Player:
Opponent: 59.99% (G:22.88% B:0.92%)
40.01% (G:8.27% B:0.34%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54281668
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

BONUS

White is Kazuki Yokota

score: 6
pip: 57

7 point match

pip: 78
score: 3

Blue is Sebastian Wilkinson

XGID=-BAbCCC-B----A----------m-:1:-1:1:41:3:6:0:7:10
Blue to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 8/7 6/2 eq: +1.227
Player:
Opponent: 83.22% (G:26.82% B:1.01%)
16.78% (G:1.31% B:0.02%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+1.222...+1.232) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13.9 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/12 6/2 eq: +1.123 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent: 84.72% (G:20.42% B:0.64%)
15.28% (G:0.45% B:0.01%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+1.119...+1.127) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.5 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/4 eq: +1.121 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent: 81.58% (G:23.35% B:0.79%)
18.42% (G:1.07% B:0.01%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+1.117...+1.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14.2 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 6/2 5/4 eq: +1.093 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent: 84.12% (G:19.56% B:0.62%)
15.88% (G:0.47% B:0.01%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+1.088...+1.097) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9.0 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/12 8/4 eq: +1.091 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent: 80.85% (G:22.57% B:0.84%)
19.15% (G:1.06% B:0.00%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+1.085...+1.096) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13.8 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54281668
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
Justin Nowell -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 3:47 a.m.
- Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
  Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 6:13 a.m.
  - Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 6:58 p.m.
- Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
  Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 6:35 a.m.
- Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
  Stick -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 8:54 a.m.
  - Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
    Stick -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 10:18 p.m.
- Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
  ah_clem -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 6:57 p.m.
- Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
  higonefive -- Wednesday, 1 May 2019, at 12:18 p.m.
- Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ** **ROLLOUT RESULTS**
  Justin Nowell -- Thursday, 2 May 2019, at 12:32 a.m.
  - Bonus Question Rollout
    Stick -- Thursday, 2 May 2019, at 3:51 a.m.
  - MOCHY and MUCHY Day 1 positions **CONTRASTING ROLLOUTS**
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 3 May 2019, at 7:17 a.m.
    - MOCHY and MUCHY Day 1 positions **CONTRASTING ROLLOUTS**
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 3 May 2019, at 7:53 a.m.
      - MOCHY and MUCHY Day 1 positions **CONTRASTING ROLLOUTS**
        Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 4 May 2019, at 3:13 a.m.
        
        MOCHY and MUCHY Day 1 positions **CONTRASTING ROLLOUTS**
        Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 4 May 2019, at 7:44 a.m.
        
        Trap play breakeven
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 5 May 2019, at 12:16 a.m.
        
        Trap play breakeven
        Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 5 May 2019, at 5:49 a.m.

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:
If necessary, enter your password below:
Password:

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.94% (G:29.34% B:0.15%)	70.25% (G:29.67% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.06% (G:4.09% B:0.16%)	29.75% (G:4.07% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.629	+1.416
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.842 (-0.158)	ą0.011 (+0.831..+0.852)
Double/Take:	+1.142 (+0.142)	ą0.017 (+1.126..+1.159)
Double/Pass:	+1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54281668 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 23 seconds