There is no roll better than 32 for making a trap play in this setup. However, even with that advantage it seems Blue's position is not quite at the breakeven for a qualified trap.
A factor against Blue is that his two far-side checkers are not optimally placed for a trap play. It is better to have at least one checker on the 13pt, if possible.
Talk is cheap. Below are three rollouts (with captions) that might elucidate my comments.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/13 14/11 | eq: +0.783 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 89.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.83% (G:0.04% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.782...+0.784) - [46.3%]
Duration: 31.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/10 | eq: +0.783 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 89.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.84% (G:0.05% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.782...+0.784) - [33.6%]
Duration: 39.4 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 14/9 | eq: +0.783 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 89.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.85% (G:0.05% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.782...+0.784) - [20.1%]
Duration: 34.9 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 14/11 6/4 | eq: +0.781 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 89.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.97% (G:0.07% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.780...+0.782) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.8 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 15/12 6/4 | eq: +0.780 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 89.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.98% (G:0.07% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.779...+0.781) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25.8 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 15/12 14/12 | eq: +0.779 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 88.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
11.04% (G:0.04% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.778...+0.780) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.0 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 15/13 6/3 | eq: +0.772 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 88.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
11.39% (G:0.06% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.771...+0.773) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.2 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout1 | 14/12 6/3 | eq: +0.772 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 88.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
11.41% (G:0.07% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.771...+0.773) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21.4 seconds |
|
| 9. | Rollout1 | 7/5 7/4 | eq: +0.767 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 88.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
11.64% (G:0.61% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.766...+0.768) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 01 second |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50783284
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/5 7/4 | eq: +0.723 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.86% (G:0.83% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.722...+0.724) - [70.7%]
Duration: 57.4 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/13 14/11 | eq: +0.722 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.90% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.721...+0.723) - [12.5%]
Duration: 38.5 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 15/10 | eq: +0.722 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.91% (G:0.14% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.720...+0.723) - [8.9%]
Duration: 35.4 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 14/9 | eq: +0.722 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.91% (G:0.14% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.720...+0.723) - [8.0%]
Duration: 30.0 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 14/11 6/4 | eq: +0.717 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
14.15% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.716...+0.718) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.6 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 15/12 6/4 | eq: +0.717 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
14.16% (G:0.14% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.715...+0.718) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.8 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 15/13 6/3 | eq: +0.714 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
14.31% (G:0.25% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.713...+0.715) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.8 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50783284
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
