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Beaver Mystery -- SOLUTION

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 5 May 2019, at 12:35 p.m.

In Response To: Beaver Mystery (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

One checker play on each side, No Double / Beaver


Blue wins the (non-doublet) opening roll and makes a point. White rolls a non-doublet and leaves a double direct shot on his own side of the board. With Blue back on roll, the correct cube action is No Double / Beaver, according to XGR++ evaluation.

What is Blue's play, and what is White's play?

SOLUTION

Congratulations to Justin Nowell, John O'Hagan, Bob Koca, Brian Lonergan, Joseph Russell, Casper, and David Rockwell, for solving the Beaver mystery!

The diagram below encapsulates the solution.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB---D-B---dE---cada---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

64P-61N-C?



Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 53.98% (G:19.64% B:1.84%) 54.00% (G:19.26% B:1.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.02% (G:11.84% B:0.51%) 46.00% (G:11.66% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.171 +0.337
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.241
Double/Beaver:-0.006 (-0.247)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.759)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.7%

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