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2019 Japan Open Final 8 - Michy vs Sebastian Wilkinson XG Feed Video + Match Quiz

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 6 May 2019, at 5:48 p.m.

In Response To: 2019 Japan Open Final 8 - Michy vs Sebastian Wilkinson XG Feed Video + Match Quiz (Justin Nowell)

POS 1)
Usually it's correct to make an additional point instead of hitting second guy an leave a blot in the process. Here, we have a choice of leaving 2 blots instead of one but a big factor is White's undeveloped board and 2 further blots. That means even if she ends up anchoring, she might still have 1 or 2 up against 5pt board so our gammons and bear-in prospects are still good. If we cover and she anchors, our prospects are not that good. Hmm, if the 6 were not that uncostructive, I'd certainly hit. Here, I'm struggling to weigh the factors. I really want to hit but I'm a little scared to leave 3 blots, so I think I'd just calmly cover OTB.
8/2 7/5

POS 2)
Double for sure, so to me it's a question whether to take or pass. An empty 6 looks too exotic, so I'd look for a close variant that's easier to judge and go from there. If I shifted Blue's 5pt to 6pt and improve White, say, by moving her 3pt to 5pt, it'd look like a take but not a very strong one. I know having the gap on 5 (owning the 6pt) instead of 6 is a big deal. So I'd rate Blue's 5>6pt shift as close in value (for the given side) to White's 3>5pt shift. Therefore I'd uncomfortably take the cube judging the decision as close.
D / T

I'd looove to see the thinking process of others for this position!

POS 3)
I've been dinged numerous times for breaking the anchor in such positions when White has so many attackers in the zone but not a strong board yet. So I'd certainly consider 13/4 or 13/7 13/10 over running. 13/4 looks slightly awkward, so I'd give a serious thought to 13/7 13/10. Many of White's 6s are duplicated so the risk doesn't seem that high, but the reward is certainly very good. If White hits, she mostly doesn't make a blocking point this turn. And I'd love to exchange shots while my board is stronger. Again, I've been dinged so many times for not recognizing slotting the bar point in proto-prime-vs-prime like this (if that's the proper way to call it) that I'm looking for such opportunities since. But it's still unintuitive to me and I'm somewhat afraid of leaving 3 blots so I think I'd play it safe here.
13/4

POS 4)
If I shift White's 6pt gap to 5 or 4pt it looks like a no double for money. So the take is clear. Is it a double? Gap on the 6pt and score might make it close, but I would still not double this one. Maybe if I were trailing slightly more...
ND / T

POS 5)
Seems clear there's no need to hit and expose that much when leading the race that much. Especially at the score. Am I overlooking something?
24/22 8/4

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