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2019 Japan Open Final 8 - Michy vs Sebastian Wilkinson XG Feed Video + Match Quiz
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: 2019 Japan Open Final 8 - Michy vs Sebastian Wilkinson XG Feed Video + Match Quiz (Justin Nowell)
Date: Wednesday, 8 May 2019, at 12:40 p.m.
Ok, I'll give these a try.
1) White has no board and a couple of blots to shoot at there, so bold play is indicated. 6/4* 8/2 puts a second checker on the roof and gives the most covers. If white hits, there's plenty of counter play. 55, 54, and especially 44 will suck but any other rolls will be good for blue, including the 16 dances.
OTOH, up by 60 pips may mean the safe play (7/5 8/2) is indicated. But down by 4-0 in the match I want a gammon. 18/10 is also worth a look so as to not bury a checker - I really don't like 8/2,
I'll stick with the bold play.
6/4* 8/2
2) White is favored to enter and is not too far behind in the race, so I think she can eke out a take here. But since I'm not sure, I'll say double.
D/T
3) Pottling looks solid, but the midpoint is crying to be unstacked. 24/18 13/10? Exposing a triple shot is almost guaranteed to put us on the roof. 13/4 seems too passive. I'll Pottle.
24/15
4) I don't see anything special about 7a 6a, so I'll basically ignore the score. With 16 dancing numbers, I think White can take comfortably. I'm seeing this evolve into a bar point holding game most of the time, so I'll say ND/T.
ND/T
5) White's blockade is not so formidable that I will eschew the hit to step up to the 22. (Or maybe simply playing it safe with 24/22 8/4 to capitalize on the 36 pip lead is best?) I'll hit with 9/7*. 8/4 cleans up a bit better than 13/9, but 13/9 brings a 13th checker into the zone. A gammon gets blue to Crawford, so the more aggressive play seems to be favored.
13/7*
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