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Post-Hit 22 to play

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Friday, 10 May 2019, at 5:56 a.m.

In Response To: Post-Hit 22 to play (Casper Van der Tak)

I agree you don't have to hit a second checker to win as in a smooth 6-off closeout White would have 32% but with these gaps this has to be cut in half or even more.

But I'll stay on the ace trying to hit the second guy. I leave a 11 light joker and a 31 which might turn out harmful but a lot of 1s and 3s expose White and hitting a second checker would seal the deal immediatelly.

If she exposes, we might even have a redouble already. Let's say she goes 2/1* with a 41 or 51. What are our chances? If we hit we might be at something like 90%. If we don't hit in her board we might hit in ours and we have good prospects for containing that back checker. Closeout with her gap on 3pt and only 1 checker at 1pt would give us maybe 75%. So before closeout we have like... 70%? So .3 (back hit) x .9 + .7 x .7 = 76%. That speaks redouble to me.

15/13 6/4 6/2

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