I fooled myself into pick'n'pass play counting only return shots. The 2-down play leaves 16 shots while pick'n'pass only 13. But having a more advanced and flexible position when missed seems to be easily worth more than these 3 shots.
If Blue plays pick'n'pass, White hits back and Blue dances, he usually has to pass already. And if White misses she can mostly take Blue's following cube.
If Blue plays 2 down, White hits back and Blue dances, White doesn't even have a double. And if she misses and doesn't make a 2nd anchor Blue can cash.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7* | eq: +0,389 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61,00% (G:11,64% B:0,45%)
39,00% (G:7,07% B:0,08%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,380...+0,399) - [100,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7* 7/2 | eq: +0,242 (-0,147) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56,64% (G:11,92% B:0,52%)
43,36% (G:14,81% B:0,24%) | Conf.: ± 0,013 (+0,229...+0,255) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 13/2 | eq: +0,138 (-0,251) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54,09% (G:7,93% B:0,28%)
45,91% (G:8,42% B:0,10%) | Conf.: ± 0,025 (+0,113...+0,163) - [0,0%]
Duration: 51,5 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 13/7* 8/3* | eq: +0,106 (-0,283) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53,77% (G:14,11% B:0,40%)
46,23% (G:24,56% B:3,38%) | Conf.: ± 0,017 (+0,090...+0,123) - [0,0%]
Duration: 48,6 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 9/3* 8/3 | eq: -0,079 (-0,468) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47,89% (G:14,27% B:0,49%)
52,11% (G:24,18% B:0,39%) | Conf.: ± 0,021 (-0,101...-0,058) - [0,0%]
Duration: 47,3 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
In a variant below White's gap is moved from her 5pt to the ace point (suggested by Casper). The best play stands.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7* | eq: +0,080 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51,47% (G:10,09% B:0,27%)
48,53% (G:10,36% B:0,20%) | Conf.: ± 0,010 (+0,070...+0,090) - [100,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7* 7/2 | eq: -0,079 (-0,158) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47,60% (G:10,65% B:0,42%)
52,40% (G:18,50% B:0,54%) | Conf.: ± 0,012 (-0,090...-0,067) - [0,0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/2 | eq: -0,100 (-0,179) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45,62% (G:7,10% B:0,19%)
54,38% (G:13,31% B:0,35%) | Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,110...-0,090) - [0,0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 13/7* 8/3* | eq: -0,158 (-0,237) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46,72% (G:12,61% B:0,32%)
53,28% (G:26,37% B:3,85%) | Conf.: ± 0,024 (-0,181...-0,134) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 9/3* 8/3 | eq: -0,240 (-0,320) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42,81% (G:11,79% B:0,27%)
57,19% (G:23,49% B:0,65%) | Conf.: ± 0,017 (-0,257...-0,224) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
